Which Ubaldo Will We See Friday?

The Yankees will face off against Ubaldo Jimenez Friday night at Yankee stadium.  This will be the Yanks first chance to face Jimenez as he pitches in the NL, so right off the bat it causes an issue as the Yankees can’t hit young pitchers they haven’t seen before.  He features quite a few pitches as well, but his fastball has some heat and he uses it often!  His fastball which nearly hits 100mph, when thrown effectively is dangerous.  Not only does he have the fastball, but he throws a sinker, slider, curveball and changeup.  He is not afraid to use any of these pitches as his “out” pitch.  In fact, his slider has some great late breaking action which deceives batter due to the late break, and his curve ball has a 12-6 drop to it making batters look silly.  His changeup sits around 78 mph, and can look similar to the curve which is thrown at a similar speed of 79-80 mph.  With five pitches in Jimenez’ arsenal, he will likely keep the Yankees busy all night long. Hopefully they will look for the first pitch fastball, as he throws it quite frequently as the first pitch.  It’s not certain whether the Yanks will face the Jimenez of 2011 or the Jimenez of 2010, as he can’t seem to find the consistency of last year; but if he finds it – The Yankees are in trouble!

Last year was Jimenez’s big year, at least the first half.  During the first two months of the season in 2010, Jimenez had an ERA of .88 and a WHIP of .95.   He won 14 of his first 16 starts for the season and finished off the year with a 19-8 record & 2.88 ERA. He totally dominated the National League last year and was easily voted into the All Star Game.  This is not necessarily the same pitcher the Yankees will face on Friday though as Jimenez seems to have lost his groove.

Although his numbers look great in 2010, his second half of the season following the All-Star break was not nearly as good as the first half.  In the second half his ERA jumped more than a point and a half, from a 2.20 to a 3.80.  Opponents batting averages jumped as well, from .198 to .223 and opponents on base percentages leaped more than 40 points higher.  Ultimately, he finished the second half of the season going 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA.  These trends have continued into 2011, but at a higher pace.

So far this season he has a 4.68 ERA.  It was not until June 1^st that Jimenez actually got his first win of the season.  He started the season going 0-5, and had a 5.00 ERA before the month of June where his numbers actually improved a bit.  His month of May was better than April, but it still wasn’t like last year.  In May, he had 3 good starts and 2 bad starts.  In his 3 good starts he pitched a total of 21 innings and struck out 18 batters, while only allowing 12 hits.  In his 2 bad starts he completely unraveled and only pitched 10 innings allowing 15 hits and 11 runs.  His consistency is a major problem this season, and has been attributed to his mechanics.

Most people think it’s Jimenez’s velocity which is the problem, but that’s only part of the problem.  The root of his velocity issues actually stems from his mechanics.  In 2010 the average velocity from his fastball was 96 mph, but this year he is averaging 92.7.  This is a huge drop in velocity.  It was not until June that his fastball has begun to improve and he actually hit 99mph on the radar gun against the Dodgers on June 1.  His fastball is not the only pitch that is lacking in velocity though as his slider has suffered as well.  Last year his slider was averaging 86 mph, but this season it’s down to 82mph.

Jimenez has tried to work out these issues with mixed success this season.  Over the last month and a half, he has some good outings including a 9 inning shutout over the Dodgers.  His fastball was up around 96 mph in the 9^th inning of that game, and he didn’t have any walks.  His control was perfect and he only allowed 4 baserunners on the night, all of which were singles.  This was an encouraging step for Jimenez, and following that game he pitched another strong game against the Padres allowing only 2 runs over 7 innings, with only 6 hits.  But then, when facing the Dodgers again the following week, Jimenez lacked his prior consistency and got lit up.  He allowed 11 hits over 5 innings to take the loss.  He pitched again last week against the Tigers and although left the game early with a calf injury, he pitched 5 innings, but gave up 8 hits and 3 runs.  It’s uncertain who the Yankees will see tomorrow, the guy who pitched the 9 inning shutout of the Dodgers or the pitcher who get shelled by them two weeks later.

Ubaldo’s problem comes down to his control which is caused by his mechanics.  Jimenez is a big guy at 6’ 4’’ and 210 pounds and generates much of his power from his size. He has somewhat of an unusual delivery though which causes problems with his mechanics.  Specifically, his release point has not been consistent at all this season.  This is where the Yankees fate lays. If Jimenez doesn’t have a consistent delivery, the Yankees will work a lot of walks, and make him throw fastballs in the zone.  If he has consistent delivery, then the Yankees aren’t going to hit him. 

His unorthodox delivery comes from his arm extending down too far, before whipping the ball forward. This is partly due to his large size.  It’s almost like his body and arm are out of synch with each other.  If his arm comes down before his body generates the energy, the ball is thrown from a different release point without the energy his lower half generates.  This causes not only control issues, but also the velocity issues.  It is the reason his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.7/9IP in 2010 to 7.8/9IP this season.  This has also caused his hit ratio to double from .4/9IP to .8/9IP, over the past two seasons.

It seems like he knows this is his problem and has tried to correct it, but can’t consistently repeat the same mechanics.  That is why he had such a stellar outing against the Dodgers, but wasn’t able to continue repeating it for more than one game.  If he can find his release point – he will win the game.  If he can’t find the release point- then control will be an issue all night and he will be forced to rely on his other pitches while getting behind in counts. 

What this really comes down to is – Which Ubaldo will show up on Friday?  If he’s not on his A-Game, the Yankees need to make him work and they can be successful.  Either way, it has the making to be a good game if AJ can keep his consistency together and work around Tulowitzki.  It’s not too often we get to see Jimenez pitch, and I’m looking forward to keeping an eye on him tomorrow!