Mariners vs Yankees Preview

The Yankees returned to Yankee stadium for a 10 game homestand this past weekend and took 2 out of 3 from the Oakland A’s.  Friday’s game was the biggest offensive blowout we have seen from the Yankees since coming to the new stadium.  The next two games were a bit tougher but the Yanks managed to grab another win on Sunday, following Saturday’s loss.  Since the All-Star break the Yankees are 6-5 and looking to grab some more wins during this homestand against the Mariners and Baltimore this weekend.

The struggling Mariners come to the stadium looking to snap a 15 game losing streak, following a sweep up in Fenway park this past weekend.  The last time these teams met was in May out in Seattle when the Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Yanks.  Although the Mariners started Hernandez and Pineda in that series, the Yankees were able to take the lead against both these pitchers early but ultimately blew both games because of the Yankee bullpen and AJ Burnett.  The Yankees are now looking to pay the Mariners back for those two very frustrating losses.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Monday:  Jason Vargas (6-8, 3.94 ERA) vs Freddy Garcia (8-7, 3.21 ERA)

-Garcia is coming off a good start against the Rays last week pitching nearly 7 innings of shutout ball.  He seemed to get himself into trouble a few times during the game but managed to pitch his way out of trouble every time.  Garcia had 7 strikeouts and no walks in his 8^th win of the season.  This win against the Rays was of a different fashion than usual for Garcia as he typically allows balls to be put in play by the batter, ultimately allowing the defense to take care of business.  This game was different as Garcia was more dominant with 66 of 92 pitches thrown for strikes, 7 strikeouts, and 13 swings and misses which typically isn’t Freddy’s style.  I would expect another strong performance against the Mariners by Garcia as their offense is the worst in the AL.

-Garcia is 1-1 over his last 3 starts with a 2.89 ERA and 13 strikeouts.

-Garcia has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last 5 starts

-Since June 12, Garcia is 4-2, with a 2.38 ERA over 7 starts

-Vargas is coming off a poor start against the Jays and was pulled after only 3 innings.  In those 3 innings, he allowed 5 runs, 6 hits and 5 walks.  It was his shortest outing since May.

-Vargas has lost his last two starts against the Yanks, allowing 13 runs over 9 innings

-Vargas is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA over his last three starts with 9 strikeouts, and has allowed 10 runs over his last two starts.

-Cano is hitting .700 against Vargas

-Swisher is hitting .375 against Vargas

Tuesday:  Doug Fister (3-11, 3.30 ERA) vs CC Sabathia (14-5, 2.62 ERA)

-Sabathia is coming off a tough loss against Tampa last week which snapped his 7 game winning streak.  Even though CC took the loss, he still had a commanding performance allowing only 2 runs over 8 innings.

-Sabathia is 11-2 since May 19 with a 2.12 ERA & over his last three starts he is 2-1 with 1.08 ERA and 25 strikeouts.

-Fister has not gotten a win since May despite some quality starts & took the loss in his last start facing the Blue Jays, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits. He had a smooth start to the game, retiring his first 10 batters but couldn’t hold the lead.

-Fister is 0-2 over his last 3 starts with a 5.03 ERA and 7 strikeouts.

Wednesday: Felix Hernandez (8-9, 3.47 ERA) vs Phil Hughes (1-2, 9.47 ERA)

-Hughes had a poor start this past Friday who couldn’t help maintain the lead the Yankees had given him in the 3^rd.  Hughes didn’t make it out again for the 4^th inning and had to be replaced by Noesi who had a strong performance in long relief.  Hughes’ velocity was down again (91mph) compared to his previous start (93 mph –ish) and didn’t have control over his fastball.  He wasn’t throwing his new curveball with the command that he had in his previous start and overall looked bad.  In all fairness, it was 103 degrees at game time and just unbearable inside that stadium but Hector Noesi had no problems throwing 4 solid innings!

-Hernandez was owned this past Friday up in Fenway allowing 6 runs on 11 hits with 4 walks over 6 2/3 innings.  He was constantly in trouble with men on bases and relied upon double plays to get himself out of it, but overall was just beat up by the Red Sox offense.

-King Felix has given up at least four runs in 3 of his last 5 starts.

-Hernandez is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 14 strikeouts over his last three starts

King Felix To The Yankees?

I think it’s time to put those questions about trading Felix Hernandez to the Yankees to bed, at least for now.  If you look at the standings right now, the Mariners are 31-30, and although they are only one game above .500, they are only 2.5 games out of first place in the AL West.  They just snapped a 6 game winning streak with their two past losses, but still remain within a couple games of the Wild Card spot.  At this point in the season, Seattle is a contender.  Any team in contention wouldn’t want to trade their best starter, at least at this point in the season.  Could you imagine being a fan of the Mariners and them trading your best pitcher while you are still contending?

Hernandez is easily within the top 5 best starters in the American League.  Some may even say he is the best.  I don’t know whether he is the best or not (I prefer Verlander), but I will say between Michael Pineda and King Felix the Mariners have the best 1-2 starting pitching combo in the American League.  Although their wins/losses may be skewed because the Mariners provide no run support, their numbers are impressive.  Hernandez has a 6-5 record with an ERA of 3.29 with 97 strikeouts on the season already!  While Pineda has a 6-3 record with a 2.33 ERA.  Over his last five games he is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA.  It doesn’t look like Pineda is fizzling out like some rookies.  With an amazing 1-2 combo like this, Seattle doesn’t want to trade either of these guys. 

Even the remaining starters for the Mariners are doing pretty well.  Jason Vargas is their #3 and he is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA. Their #4 is Doug Fister with a 3-6 record and 3.29 ERA and Erik Bedard is their 5^th starter with a 3-4 record and 3.46 ERA.  As I previously said, you can’t really look at their wins/losses because the team doesn’t help them, but every one of their starters has an ERA under 4.00.  They have the 2^nd highest shutouts & complete games pitched this season.  In fact, the Mariners have the 2^nd lowest ERA in the entire American League, averaging 3.35. (A’s are #1 with 3.23). 

The Mariners probably have the best pitching staff in the AL, as they top the charts in most categories.  They have the 2^nd highest strikeouts (thanks to Pineda & Hernandez) with 435 and have the second lowest amount of walks with 170. Not only do they strike out batters, but they don’t allow men on base as they have the 2^nd lowest amount of hits allowed (492), and home runs (40).  This ultimately gives them the least amount of runs allowed in the major leagues with 223.  As the numbers illustrate, the pitching staff gives this team a way to win every night of the week.  The rest is on the offense.

This team shouldn’t be trading away their best pitcher – they should be trading for a bat or two or three!  Eric Wedge seems to be losing his mind with the way the offense is struggling.  In particular their projected leadoff and #2 batters, Ichiro & Figgins are struggling.  Ichiro is batting a career low .260 (.331 career batter), and he’s not on pace to hit his customary 200 hits.  Figgins is doing so bad that he is now batting 8^th in their order.  He only has 3 hits in his last 40 at bats and is hitting a mere .185, with the worst OPS in the league.  (It’s almost funny how the media doesn’t bother Ichiro about his age.  He is older than Jeter and a lower batting average!)

Meanwhile, the mariners have rookie Justin Smoak (traded for Cliff Lee last year) as their 3^rd batter in the lineup being backed up by cleanup man Jack Cust.  Smoak is doing a heck of a job, but probably shouldn’t be carrying the weight of a #3 batter as a rookie.  Smoak is only hitting .245, but does have a .349 on base percentage and an impressive slugging percentage of .535%.  The Mariners should be in the market for a #3 hitter, or a batter with an impressive OPS and some experience.  Smoak is doing a great job, but could really use a lift with a more experienced hitter in this role. 

The emphasis for a big bat is even more necessary as Jack Cust is the cleanup hitter playing DH, but only hitting .225 with a mere .335 slugging percentage.  This is not the type of guy you think of when cleanup hitter is mentioned.  In an effort to gain some more offense, the Mariners just called up their minor league phenom Eric Carp, who has been lighting it up in the Pacific League as their big bat.  So far in the minors, Carp is hitting .433 with 11 Home Runs.  He would most likely replace Cust as the DH or even play the outfield in place of rookie Carlos Paguero.  Carp may have great numbers down in the minors, but the Mariners need more than just another rookie in their lineup as a big bat.  Rookies make mistakes and strike out too much.  They need to get serious and sign a big name or even just a couple veteran type sluggers with high OPS’.

Without spending some money or making a decent trade for themselves they will continue to struggle offensively.  Right now the Mariners have the lowest batting average with .229, lowest on base percentage with .300, lowest slugging percentage at .337% and the lowest OBP at .637.  Each of these categories can be improved by replacing the #3 or #4 batters with a big bat.  They have the pitching which is the tough part, now all they need to do is get some decent hitters in their lineup and they could easily take the AL West or the wild card if Texas stays hot.

The worst move the Mariners could make at this point would be to trade King Felix.  They have the potential in their starting rotation to advance to the post-season, and all they need is one or two moves to fill out their lineup.  If they land a #3 or #4 hitter, they can surround Smoak with dangerous hitters and Smoak will see better pitchers.  Nobody is threatened by Cust batting .224.  At some point, Figgins & Ichiro will put up better numbers and before you know it, the Mariners could have a decent lineup.  At the very least, the Mariners could be a competitive team again.  If they trade Hernandez though…. It’s over!

As much as I would love to see King Felix come to New York, it’s not practical thinking….. YET!

ON THE ROAD AGAIN.....

The Yankees are starting a 9 game road trip tonight in Seattle.  Although they have played the fewest road game of any team, the road has treated the Yankees well this season as they are 10-8 which is the second best record in the league behind Tampa.  The Yanks have been in and out of first place over the last few days and would like to win some games against the struggling Mariners.  Lucky for the Yanks pitching staff, the Mariners are in the bottom 5 of teams in the AL for runs, home runs, and slugging.

Although the Mariners are playing sub-.500 ball, the Yankees will see the Mariners toughest pitchers, and this series will be a serious challenge for both teams.  The Mariners pitching staff is 8-2 with a 1.50 ERA over their last 10 games and the Yankees will face Pineda & Hernandez in the first two games.  This is going to be a tough road series for the Yankees.  If the Yankees want 1^st place, they will have to earn it this week on the road.

Starting Pitchers

FRIDAY: A.J. Burnett (5-3, 4.02 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (6-2, 2.16 ERA)

Pineda is the hottest rookie in the AL right now, with the most wins and strikeouts (61)

-Over his last 2 starts he has thrown 14 scoreless innings allowing only 5 hits and 1 walk- while striking out 16 in those two games.

Pineda is a Big Dude: 22 year old 6 foot 7” right hander weighing in at 260lbs!

Worth Noting:  Pineda was the 2008 Mariners Minor League Pitcher of the Year, pitching 138 innings while keeping a 1.95 ERA with 128 strikeouts.  If his numbers tell us anything – we will see a lot of Yankee strikeouts tonight.

Burnett is coming off a good win against the Mets last weekend, after struggling in the first inning.

I’m really looking forward to tonight’s game as I have seen Pineda’s highlights all year long on sportscenter and baseball tonight, but haven’t actually seen a full game he pitched.  Always cool to see a young pitcher dominating.  Good baseball is Good baseball.

SATURDAY: Ivan Nova (4-3, 4.29 ERA) vs. “King” Felix Hernandez (5-4, 3.01 ERA)

Hernandez  vs. Nova should be another good game of pitching with Nova coming off a good win last weekend against the Mets allowing only 3 runs in nearly 7 innings, while Hernandez is coming off a dominating start against the Padres with 13 strikeouts.

King Felix has struck out 26 batters in the last 3 games, but the silver lining for the Yankees is Granderson hits .324 against him all-time.

SUNDAY CC Sabathia (5-3, 3.17 ERA) vs Jason Vargas (3-2, 3.86 ERA)

Sabathia is just getting warmed up this season and pitched his first complete game on Tuesday for the win.  While Vargas is 2-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.91 ERA.  Although Vargas’ last game was a tough loss to Minnesota; prior to that game he had allowed 1 run in 23 innings.

Yankees Notes

-Granderson is still smacking the hell out of the ball.  Since Batting #2 in the Yankee lineup he is batting .304 with 8 HR’s.

-Arod is beginning to heat back up again - He has hit in 14 of his last 17 games.

-Rafiel Soriano Who? – He’s out until July at the earliest.  This is looking like a bad signing more and more every day.

-A Tex Message:  Tex has 4 home runs in his last 7 games.

*The Yankees have scored 250 runs this season & are tied with the Cardinals in the MLB for most runs scored

Mariners Notes

Keep an eye on him:  Justin Smoak is the young player the Mariners picked up in that Cliff Lee trade last season that sent Lee to the Rangers.  He is leading the team with 6 home runs and 26 RBI’s this season while batting .263 with a .363 OBP & .461 slugging %.

Countdown to 3000

Derek Jeter is at 2,976 hits