AL Rookie Of The Year Candidates 2011

We are closing in on the end of the season and it’s about time to start discussing some possible Rookie of The Year Candidates, especially since we will see a handful of them during this next week. This past week the Yankees played the Angels before the Rays come to the Bronx, and then the Yankees go to Kansas City.  Each of these teams has a rookie of the year candidate, so let’s take a look.

ANGELS

Mark Trumbo has been a big addition to this Angels team this season at first base.  Not only does Trumbo make a solid defensive first baseman, he hits for power.  Trumbo was called up from the minors to replace Kendrys Morales, who still has never recovered from falling on his bat after celebrating a walk off home run last year… one of the more bizarre injuries I have ever seen.  Those were big shoes for Trumbo to fill as Morales hit .306 with 34 homeruns and 108 RBI’s back in 2009 (his last full season).  Trumbo has done a great job filling in and is hitting .261 with a .302 on base % and .493 slugging %.  He leads all rookies with a .796 OPS, 22 home runs, 63 RBI’s and 21 doubles. 

The scouting report on Trumbo is that he swings at too many pitches – especially outside the strike zone.  It’s a common rookie issue, but the Yankees exploited this against him during the past three games keeping him 2-11 during the series.

Although Trumbo doesn’t hit for average, the power numbers are ‘glamour stats’ which could be a big factor for him to win the Rookie of the Year.  He reminds me of Mark Texeira and his numbers are somewhat similar to Tex’s .247/.341/.512 line with 17 doubles, 32 homeruns and 86 RBI’s.  He’s Tex-Light

Jordan Walden pitched against the Yankees on Tuesday night and got the save when Mo blew the game.  I didn’t think Walden had a great outing, but he did get out of trouble thanks to Granderson getting caught stealing to end the game.  I doubt that Walden could actually win the rookie of the year award, but he’s worth a mention as he is a rookie closer which is somewhat unique.  His ERA is 2.74 with a 1.19 WHIP and he does have 26 saves but unfortunately he has 7 blown saves as well which I would think eliminates his name from contention.  He also gets wild and this causes his walk rate to balloon up to 3.3BB/9IP which is not what you want in a closer.  His control issues stem from the fact that he almost exclusively uses a fastball which hits 97 mph (about 80% of pitches) but if he can’t locate the fastball, then he has nothing else.

RAYS

Jeremy Hellickson will pitch Saturday against the Yankees for the second time this season following a great game against the Royals this past week where he allowed only 1 run over 7 1/3 innings.  In his first game against the Yankees he held them to a .192 batting average and struck out 7.  Hellickson has had a great season and since the All Star Break has been somewhat dominating.  In his past 4 starts since the All Star Break, Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA.  Overall, he has a 3.05 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and holds opposing batters to a .208 batting average (5^th best in the AL).  Hellickson only throws in the low 90’s with his fastball, but his changeup which he throws 30% of the time, is his ‘out’ pitch .

Hellickson is not a bad pick for the AL rookie of the year, but the Rays are keeping an eye on his innings limit and there is a chance he may be shut down early this season, especially with the Rays out of contention for the postseason.  If he gets shut down early, I think he could be eliminated from contention.

ROYALS

Eric Hosmer was the 3^rd overall pick in the 2008 draft by the Royals and has been considered a highly touted prospect since the draft which prompted the Royals to call up the 21 year old so early.  Since getting called up he is hitting .276 with a .332 on base % and a .764 OPS.  Hosmer has 10 home runs, 19 doubles and 48 RBI’s which pale in comparison to Trumbo’s numbers, but Hosmer is still a good young player with lots of potential.  His 10 home runs are 3^rd among AL rookies (Trumbo is #1, Arencibia is #2).  Hosmer seems to be having some difficulty with lefty pitchers as his line against lefties is .220/.271/.256 compared to strong numbers against righties at .300/.356/.508.  Sounds like he could use the Curtis Granderson treatment from Kevin Long to improve his numbers against lefties!

So far this season, Hosmer is 4 for 12 against the Yankees with 2 home runs and 4 RBI’s.  I don’t think he has the numbers for rookie of the year especially as he is competing with Trumbo who’s numbers are better but he is definitely a young prospect to keep an eye on over the next few seasons.

YANKEES

Ivan Nova is having a great season for the Yankees and he only seems to be getting better as the season progresses.  Although his ERA and WHIP are a bit inflated at 3.85 and 1.38 respectively, his numbers during the second half show improvement.  His second half ERA is 2.61 with a 1.01 WHIP compared to 4.12 and 1.47 in the first half.  In the month of July his ERA dropped to a 2.25 and in August so far is 2.63… the Yankees better not send him back to Triple-A after this 6 man rotation fails!  Even his strikeout ratio improved from 5K/9IP in the first half to 7K/9IP in the second half and that includes this past start against the Angels when he had 0 strikeouts! Nova’s clearly pitching much better now than he did at any point last season or the beginning of this year.  He seems to have gotten used to his surroundings and has not had a bad outing since May. 

It’s hard to say whether Nova will be a leading candidate for AL rookie of the year as I tend to be very biased when it comes to the Yankees, but I have watched him pitch all season and develop into a great starting pitcher which is reflected in his 11-4 record.  He has developed secondary pitches like his slider and curve ball to use in conjunction with his sinker and proven himself to be a worthwhile starter in the Yankees organization.

Eduardo Nunez is likely not going to even be considered for the rookie of the year, probably due to his fielding errors alone.  He doesn’t have enough playing time either as he is a utility infielder, but he deserves some credit as he has been doing a great job filling in throughout the infield when needed.  Nunez puts up decent offensive numbers and seems to come up big in clutch situations.  If he can get his fielding straightened out, he will get some more playing time at shortstop and third base as Jeter and Arod will need more rest over the next few season with Father time breathing down their necks.

RED SOX

Josh Reddick had the winning hit this past Sunday in Fenway to take the rubber game from the Yankees.  Reddick is the backup outfielder for the Red Sox and since he is backup, he doesn’t have enough playing time to compete for AL Rookie of the Year, but he is worth a honorable mention as he is hitting .322 with a .368 on base % and .895 OPS.

This is just a list of names that we have either seen over the past week or will see in the next week.  It is NOT an exhaustive list of candidates.  There are numerous guys on the candidate list who I didn’t mention, and in fact I think Michael Pineda will win the AL Rookie of the Year for Seattle, but since the Yanks aren’t playing the Mariner’s soon he was temporarily ignored.  I will come back to this post at some point later this season and update it all with all the leading candidates, but this should give you a good preview of the next week or two and who to keep an eye on.

King Felix To The Yankees?

I think it’s time to put those questions about trading Felix Hernandez to the Yankees to bed, at least for now.  If you look at the standings right now, the Mariners are 31-30, and although they are only one game above .500, they are only 2.5 games out of first place in the AL West.  They just snapped a 6 game winning streak with their two past losses, but still remain within a couple games of the Wild Card spot.  At this point in the season, Seattle is a contender.  Any team in contention wouldn’t want to trade their best starter, at least at this point in the season.  Could you imagine being a fan of the Mariners and them trading your best pitcher while you are still contending?

Hernandez is easily within the top 5 best starters in the American League.  Some may even say he is the best.  I don’t know whether he is the best or not (I prefer Verlander), but I will say between Michael Pineda and King Felix the Mariners have the best 1-2 starting pitching combo in the American League.  Although their wins/losses may be skewed because the Mariners provide no run support, their numbers are impressive.  Hernandez has a 6-5 record with an ERA of 3.29 with 97 strikeouts on the season already!  While Pineda has a 6-3 record with a 2.33 ERA.  Over his last five games he is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA.  It doesn’t look like Pineda is fizzling out like some rookies.  With an amazing 1-2 combo like this, Seattle doesn’t want to trade either of these guys. 

Even the remaining starters for the Mariners are doing pretty well.  Jason Vargas is their #3 and he is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA. Their #4 is Doug Fister with a 3-6 record and 3.29 ERA and Erik Bedard is their 5^th starter with a 3-4 record and 3.46 ERA.  As I previously said, you can’t really look at their wins/losses because the team doesn’t help them, but every one of their starters has an ERA under 4.00.  They have the 2^nd highest shutouts & complete games pitched this season.  In fact, the Mariners have the 2^nd lowest ERA in the entire American League, averaging 3.35. (A’s are #1 with 3.23). 

The Mariners probably have the best pitching staff in the AL, as they top the charts in most categories.  They have the 2^nd highest strikeouts (thanks to Pineda & Hernandez) with 435 and have the second lowest amount of walks with 170. Not only do they strike out batters, but they don’t allow men on base as they have the 2^nd lowest amount of hits allowed (492), and home runs (40).  This ultimately gives them the least amount of runs allowed in the major leagues with 223.  As the numbers illustrate, the pitching staff gives this team a way to win every night of the week.  The rest is on the offense.

This team shouldn’t be trading away their best pitcher – they should be trading for a bat or two or three!  Eric Wedge seems to be losing his mind with the way the offense is struggling.  In particular their projected leadoff and #2 batters, Ichiro & Figgins are struggling.  Ichiro is batting a career low .260 (.331 career batter), and he’s not on pace to hit his customary 200 hits.  Figgins is doing so bad that he is now batting 8^th in their order.  He only has 3 hits in his last 40 at bats and is hitting a mere .185, with the worst OPS in the league.  (It’s almost funny how the media doesn’t bother Ichiro about his age.  He is older than Jeter and a lower batting average!)

Meanwhile, the mariners have rookie Justin Smoak (traded for Cliff Lee last year) as their 3^rd batter in the lineup being backed up by cleanup man Jack Cust.  Smoak is doing a heck of a job, but probably shouldn’t be carrying the weight of a #3 batter as a rookie.  Smoak is only hitting .245, but does have a .349 on base percentage and an impressive slugging percentage of .535%.  The Mariners should be in the market for a #3 hitter, or a batter with an impressive OPS and some experience.  Smoak is doing a great job, but could really use a lift with a more experienced hitter in this role. 

The emphasis for a big bat is even more necessary as Jack Cust is the cleanup hitter playing DH, but only hitting .225 with a mere .335 slugging percentage.  This is not the type of guy you think of when cleanup hitter is mentioned.  In an effort to gain some more offense, the Mariners just called up their minor league phenom Eric Carp, who has been lighting it up in the Pacific League as their big bat.  So far in the minors, Carp is hitting .433 with 11 Home Runs.  He would most likely replace Cust as the DH or even play the outfield in place of rookie Carlos Paguero.  Carp may have great numbers down in the minors, but the Mariners need more than just another rookie in their lineup as a big bat.  Rookies make mistakes and strike out too much.  They need to get serious and sign a big name or even just a couple veteran type sluggers with high OPS’.

Without spending some money or making a decent trade for themselves they will continue to struggle offensively.  Right now the Mariners have the lowest batting average with .229, lowest on base percentage with .300, lowest slugging percentage at .337% and the lowest OBP at .637.  Each of these categories can be improved by replacing the #3 or #4 batters with a big bat.  They have the pitching which is the tough part, now all they need to do is get some decent hitters in their lineup and they could easily take the AL West or the wild card if Texas stays hot.

The worst move the Mariners could make at this point would be to trade King Felix.  They have the potential in their starting rotation to advance to the post-season, and all they need is one or two moves to fill out their lineup.  If they land a #3 or #4 hitter, they can surround Smoak with dangerous hitters and Smoak will see better pitchers.  Nobody is threatened by Cust batting .224.  At some point, Figgins & Ichiro will put up better numbers and before you know it, the Mariners could have a decent lineup.  At the very least, the Mariners could be a competitive team again.  If they trade Hernandez though…. It’s over!

As much as I would love to see King Felix come to New York, it’s not practical thinking….. YET!

ON THE ROAD AGAIN.....

The Yankees are starting a 9 game road trip tonight in Seattle.  Although they have played the fewest road game of any team, the road has treated the Yankees well this season as they are 10-8 which is the second best record in the league behind Tampa.  The Yanks have been in and out of first place over the last few days and would like to win some games against the struggling Mariners.  Lucky for the Yanks pitching staff, the Mariners are in the bottom 5 of teams in the AL for runs, home runs, and slugging.

Although the Mariners are playing sub-.500 ball, the Yankees will see the Mariners toughest pitchers, and this series will be a serious challenge for both teams.  The Mariners pitching staff is 8-2 with a 1.50 ERA over their last 10 games and the Yankees will face Pineda & Hernandez in the first two games.  This is going to be a tough road series for the Yankees.  If the Yankees want 1^st place, they will have to earn it this week on the road.

Starting Pitchers

FRIDAY: A.J. Burnett (5-3, 4.02 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (6-2, 2.16 ERA)

Pineda is the hottest rookie in the AL right now, with the most wins and strikeouts (61)

-Over his last 2 starts he has thrown 14 scoreless innings allowing only 5 hits and 1 walk- while striking out 16 in those two games.

Pineda is a Big Dude: 22 year old 6 foot 7” right hander weighing in at 260lbs!

Worth Noting:  Pineda was the 2008 Mariners Minor League Pitcher of the Year, pitching 138 innings while keeping a 1.95 ERA with 128 strikeouts.  If his numbers tell us anything – we will see a lot of Yankee strikeouts tonight.

Burnett is coming off a good win against the Mets last weekend, after struggling in the first inning.

I’m really looking forward to tonight’s game as I have seen Pineda’s highlights all year long on sportscenter and baseball tonight, but haven’t actually seen a full game he pitched.  Always cool to see a young pitcher dominating.  Good baseball is Good baseball.

SATURDAY: Ivan Nova (4-3, 4.29 ERA) vs. “King” Felix Hernandez (5-4, 3.01 ERA)

Hernandez  vs. Nova should be another good game of pitching with Nova coming off a good win last weekend against the Mets allowing only 3 runs in nearly 7 innings, while Hernandez is coming off a dominating start against the Padres with 13 strikeouts.

King Felix has struck out 26 batters in the last 3 games, but the silver lining for the Yankees is Granderson hits .324 against him all-time.

SUNDAY CC Sabathia (5-3, 3.17 ERA) vs Jason Vargas (3-2, 3.86 ERA)

Sabathia is just getting warmed up this season and pitched his first complete game on Tuesday for the win.  While Vargas is 2-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.91 ERA.  Although Vargas’ last game was a tough loss to Minnesota; prior to that game he had allowed 1 run in 23 innings.

Yankees Notes

-Granderson is still smacking the hell out of the ball.  Since Batting #2 in the Yankee lineup he is batting .304 with 8 HR’s.

-Arod is beginning to heat back up again - He has hit in 14 of his last 17 games.

-Rafiel Soriano Who? – He’s out until July at the earliest.  This is looking like a bad signing more and more every day.

-A Tex Message:  Tex has 4 home runs in his last 7 games.

*The Yankees have scored 250 runs this season & are tied with the Cardinals in the MLB for most runs scored

Mariners Notes

Keep an eye on him:  Justin Smoak is the young player the Mariners picked up in that Cliff Lee trade last season that sent Lee to the Rangers.  He is leading the team with 6 home runs and 26 RBI’s this season while batting .263 with a .363 OBP & .461 slugging %.

Countdown to 3000

Derek Jeter is at 2,976 hits