The Andruw Jones Predicament

Only the New York Yankees could continuously bench a guy with a .294 batting average on the season.  Go figure!  For some reason, Girardi continues to have Andruw Jones platoon in left field with Brett Gardner despite Gardner’s impressive numbers lately.  Maybe Girardi is stuck in 2005 or maybe he just wants to get Jones some more at bats, but it’s time to put an end to this silliness.  I like stats as much as anybody (maybe not as much as Girardi), but I know that when a guy is hot – play him everyday!

Gardner had a tough month of April and only hit .188 for the month with a .273 on base percentage.  By no stretch of the imagination was Gardner swinging the bat well.  Even if you forget Gardner’s numbers from last year, he had a very poor April compared to his career numbers.  That all changed though in the month of May.  During May, Gardner dramatically improved his numbers in all offensive categories as he hit .301, with a .379 on base percentage.  The month of June has treated Gardner even better than May as he is hitting .404 with a .481 on base percentage and an uncharacteristic .553 slugging percentage on the month.  Yet, Girardi still keeps him on the bench most days the Yanks face a lefty pitcher.  Even after his game winning at bat on Thursday, Girardi sat him the next afternoon against the Cubs since they were facing a lefty.

I understand that the Yankees specifically gave Andruw Jones a 1 year deal for 2 million so he could face lefty pitchers, but at some point they need to cut him loose.  He isn’t helping the team at all, and in fact is more of a problem in the lineup and the field.  Right now, Jones is hitting a mere .208 with a .288 on base percentage.  More importantly, since Jones is a power hitter his OPS should be respectable, but instead he only has a .690 OPS.  Meanwhile, in the month of June, Gardner has 1.03 OPS, and has never been considered a power hitter by any means!  Moreover, while Jones is supposed to be the go-to-guy when facing a lefty, his numbers against lefties aren’t much better.  Jones boasts a .236 average and a nominal .311 on base percentage against lefties. 



When was the last time you saw Jones make a play like this?



It doesn’t help Jones’ case that he is older and slower these days.  It used to be fun watching Jones chase down balls in the outfield and make catches that were always on sportscenter the next morning.  Nowadays, he is not making those plays and instead allowing doubles out in left field.  Although he doesn’t have any errors on the season, he just isn’t getting to the ball quick enough, especially when compared to the speedy Gardner.  Furthermore, Jones isn’t a threat on the bases and poses a bigger risk for the Yankees hitting into a double play (which they sure seem to like this year).

At some point the Yankees will need to cut their losses and release Jones.  Normally, I would try to be patient with a veteran guy like Jones and have him sit the bench to be a late inning pinch hitter, but Jones poses no threat to an opposing pitcher.  If you are an opposing manager, you wouldn’t change your pitcher from a lefty to a righty because Andruw Jones is coming to the plate hitting .236 off lefties.  It’s silly to have Gardner sit on the bench at all right now, especially while he is having an amazing June, so that Andruw Jones can get some at bats.  He’s not bringing anything to the table. 

I typically like brining in younger guys from Triple-A as replacements (rather than buying a bat) and it wouldn’t hurt the team to bring in a guy like Greg Golson from Scranton.  Golson is an outfielder who is hitting .286 on the season so far, with a .345 on base percentage and .442 slugging percentage.  Golson had a hamstring injury and was on the DL until very early June, but since coming off the DL is 14 for his last 40 at bats.  Why not give a player like this an opportunity rather than using Jones?  I wouldn’t use Golson in place of Gardner often but Golson can give the regular outfielders a day off to keep them sharp and can be used later in games as a pinch runner because of his speed.  Swisher could use a few days off to get his swing in check as well.  I’m not sure how long of a leash Jones has, but the Yankees will be forced to make some important choices with him before the all star break, especially if he doesn’t pick up his numbers against lefties soon.

Bring On the Lefties

Girardi has put together two different lineups when the Yankees are facing a righty pitcher versus a lefty pitcher.  When facing off against a lefty Andruw Jones starts over either Gardner who has been struggling or Posada who can’t hit a lefty (Lefty Lineup) and when they face off against a righty, Posada starts as DH (Righty Lineup).  Much of the lineup remains the same although Girardi has been giving some of the guys random days off for rest.  

The Rule

Looking at these two lineups, the Yankees have been very successful against lefties.  They have only faced 9 lefty starters throughout the first month of the season, but they have faced quite a few lefty relief pitchers.  The results are impressive as the team’s “Lefty Lineup” batting average against lefty’s is .270 while the “Righty Lineup” has a .239 batting average.  A 40 point jump can be dramatic when the team has been struggling offensively as of late.  Even more impressive is a few guys’ batting average increases.

The Most dramatic jump is for Nick Swisher who is hitting a mere .141 against righties, but when he faces off against a lefty, he hits .400!  Swish’s on base percentage jumps to .444 when facing against a lefty.  That means when he goes to the plate against a lefty, there is nearly a 50% chance he will reach base!  Girardi may want to consider bumping Swisher to the top of the lineup against lefties if he can keep up these numbers.

Jeter is another player whose numbers jump when facing a lefty pitcher.    Surprising enough, even with Jeter’s sub par first month, he is actually batting .313 against lefties, with a .405 on base percentage.  He only bats .235 against righties. That is over a 75 point jump in his numbers when facing lefties.  I suppose that is why Girardi has been batting him leadoff against lefties.

Brett Gardner has been off to a slow start in the first month and is hitting a meager .197 against righties, but when he faces lefties, his average jumps to .286.  That is nearly 100 points added to his average!  Texeira has about a 100 point jump when facing a lefty as well.  Tex’s average against lefties is .333 compared to only .219 against righties.  Of course Andruw Jones has better numbers against lefties, and that is why he starts games against lefties.  Jones’ average against lefties is .231 compared to .200 against righties.

Exception to the Rule

Of course there are a few exceptions to the rule and of course, Arod is on that list.  Arod bats .286 against righties while only .200 against lefties.  This stays consistent to his career average against lefties coming in higher at .289 compared to .307 against righties.  This does seem unusual though as Arod bats righty, and should theoretically have a higher average against lefty.   Cano joins Arod as the exception to the rule as he is batting .313 against righties and .270 against lefties.  No different than Arod, Cano’s career splits are better when facing off against lefties.  He hits .296 against lefties compared to .314 against righties.  

Granderson had started off very hot against lefties after working with Kevin Long last August but in the last week, his average against lefties dropped from .318 to .258.  Granderson went 0-2 against Holland on Friday, which attributed to the drop in average.  He is batting .269 against righty’s.  Granderson has always been known to have problems when facing lefties, but he has made significant strides since coming to the Yankees.

AND THE CATCHERS

One of the bigger surprises was Russell Martin who seems to struggle against lefties and is only hitting .136 against them, compared to .304 against righties.  In fact, Martin has hit 6 of his 7 homers off righties.  This issue (if it is actually an issue) can be tinkered with by substituting Martin with Cervelli when they are facing lefties.  Although Cervelli has only played one game so far so we don’t have a sample for 2011, his career splits against lefties is higher than righties.  Cervelli hits .328 against lefties compared to .247 against righties.  His 2010 numbers were similar as well since he hit only .246 against righties and .322 against lefties.  It’s obviously much easier said than done, to replace Martin when facing a lefty, as there are more variables involved with a catcher such as the Yankees starting pitcher, but it could lead to better offensive production.

Although he has not caught a game, Posada is still considered a catcher by me.  Posada is batting .192 against righties and is batting 0 against lefties.  In his 29 plate appearances against lefties, he has yet to get one hit.  His numbers are the biggest cause for concern on the team in my opinion.

I wonder if we could see some changes to the lineup throughout the season if these lefty trends continue.  If Swish continues his .444 on base percentage it would be crazy to not keep him in the top of the order so Tex, Arod or Cano could drive him home.

The State of the Yankees

The Yankees tied the series 1-1 after today's win against the Rangers and maintained their half game lead in the AL East.  The Yankees are now 8-5 on the season.

Freddy Garcia pitched 6 scoreless innings and got the win.  Garcia pitched very well, especially for a guy who hasn't started since March 29, nearly three weeks ago.  He doesn't have the speed that he used to, but Garcia is a different pitcher these days.  His fastballs are only hitting 87-88 mph, but his command today was perfect.  Garcia mixed in breaking pitches and offspeed pitches, that kept the Rangers guessing all day.  He only allowed 2 hits, as the Rangers looked confused against him.

The bullpen came in and finished things off with Chamberlain in for the 7th, Soriano in the 8th and of course Mo finishing it off in the 9th getting his 6th save of the season.  The bullpen has looked dominant so far, and today was no exception although Soriano came close to giving up a homer to Beltre today.  The Yankees bullpen has only allowed 3 Earned Runs in the past 23 innings!

The last two games, the Rangers have used left handed starting pitching.  The Yankees bat Jeter leadoff against lefties due to his strong career numbers against lefty pitchers.  Since Gardner is having some trouble offensively, Andruw Jones has been starting in left field.  Without Gardner in the lineup, Nick Swisher gets moved up in the batter order to #2.  He seems to like batting in the 2-spot, as Swish has four hits over the last two games batting second.  This formula seems to be working so far.

Tomorrow night the Yankees will try to win this series before hitting the road to Toronto & Baltimore.  CC Sabathia will get the final start against Alexi Ogando.  Sabathia has yet to get a win despite strong starts and only a 1.45 ERA.  Ogando who is a converted relief pitcher, is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA.  He has pitched 13 scoreless innings over his previous two starts.  He has never started a game against the Yankees and has only pitched very limited innings in relief, so tomorrow may be a battle of starting pitchers.  Hopefully CC will get a win already!

Burnett will pitch Tuesday in Toronto but after him the starting rotation is a big question mark.  Hughes has been placed on the DL with a "dead arm" so Colon will likely take his spot, but it may be possible to see Nova get the start on Wednesday in order to allow Colon to try and stretch himself out a bit.  Right now, Colon can only pitch about 80 pitches.  Since the Yankees have Thursday off, that should give Freddy Garcia the chance to pitch Friday night in Baltimore, followed by Sabathia who would pitch Saturday giving him 5 days rest.  It's entirely possible that Sabathia may pitch Friday rather than Saturday and Garcia or Colon would start Saturday night. 

Girardi needs to make some big decisions with the starting rotation as the only reliable starters are CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, although after last season, I don't think anybody likes using "reliable" as a adjective to describe Burnett. 

Why The Trade Makes Sense

As of today, Granderson's injury is still a question mark and he said its 50-50 that he will play on opening day.  I would imagine the Yankees are quite concerned about this injury and will play it safe by starting Granderson on the DL for the start of the season.  It's easier to deal with a small problem now, then a large problem in June/July.  With Granderson's health and Andruw Jones sub-par numbers this spring, the Yankees needed some insurance.


With Mitre being the odd man out in the rotation battle this spring, it was logical that Cashman would try to deal him.  The Brewers, like the Yankees, had an extra player but in their outfield, Chris Dickerson.  Since Zack Greinke was injured this spring, the Brewers needed a starting pitcher and the Yankees needed a fourth/fifth outfielder, it just made sense -- Trade Mitre for Dickerson.


Dickerson was having a decent spring training, batting .278.  He has quality career numbers against righties, batting .273/.363/.420.  It looks like the Yankees will start Dickerson when they are facing a righty and start Andruw Jones when facing a lefty.  Dickerson has some big league experience in the outfield, which is more than the Yankees can say about Eduardo Nunez who has been getting some starts in left field.  Nunez has looked terrible trying to track down fly balls, so he would be a defensive liability.  


The other options for the outfield spot weren't looking much better:  Golson, Curtis & Mesa.  Of that group, I like Melky Mesa the best, but he is still a long way from playing in the big leagues.  Golson who made some starts last year is having a slow offensive spring only batting .231, so the Yankees need to let him heat up in AAA if they will call him up.  Colin Curtis is the other option but he has been injured this spring and is batting .000 in six starts.  His winter ball numbers in the Mexican League weren't much better than Golson, batting only .240.  Bottom line is nobody in the Yankees system made much sense and Cashman had to get creative.  


This trade wasn't a "Big Trade" but it alleviated some of the concerns the Yankees had for the outfield.  Bringing in Dickerson for righties and starting Jones for lefties was a smart solution to a temporary problem.  It should be interesting to see what the Yankees do once Granderson is healthy, but something tells me Cashman has a few other moves up his sleeve.

And Who's Not!

Jesus Montero, the highly touted prospect known for his bat is struggling this spring.  He is batting .222 with only 2 doubles this spring.  Montero is known for his power numbers but has not hit a home run this spring.  The Yankees believe his low offensive numbers are due to him putting too much pressure on himself and it seems likely he may get optioned down to Triple- A.  Optioning him down actually will help him develop his offensive numbers since he will have an opportunity to start everyday rather than once or twice a week as the backup catcher to Martin.  It took Montero until June of last year to get his offensive numbers going, but once he did they skyrocketed and he hit .351 during the second half of the season. 

Posada seems to be having a difficult time adapting to the DH role.  The days of Jorge Posada playing catcher seem to be over, and he must find a way to be an effective DH.  Rumors around Spring Training show that Posada has spoken with Johnny Damon and David Ortiz about how to make this switch.  Hopefully they give him their keys to success because Posada is only batting .231 this spring.

The Yankees know what they are getting with Ramiro Pena.  He has a great glove, but very troubling offensive numbers that seem to be getting worse.  In 2010 he hit only .227, and many of his outs seemed to come during important bats in the game.  His Mexican League Winter Ball numbers weren’t better, as he only batted .233 and this spring got even worse, with his .171 batting average.  He is now looking at being replaced by Eduardo Nunez for that utility infielder spot.  I think it’s fair to say, we may have seen the last of Pena.

Andruw Jones was signed this season to replace Marcus Thames as the 4^th outfielder.  There is no chance of Jones being cut, but he is doing awful this spring.  He has more strikeouts (8) than hits (7) this spring his average is down to .219.  At the very least, he is still a terrific outfielder and the Yankees won’t have to try and use Nunez as a backup outfielder.

Swisher has surprised me with a slow start this spring.  All I heard during the offseason and beginning of spring training was that Swish was focused and working on his batting with Kevin Long as well as plate discipline.  That has yet to be seen as Swisher is batting only .255 with a dismal .280 on base percentage with 9 Strikeouts…. So much for plate disclipline.  At least with Swish, you can feel confident he will work hard to get it together and have another good season.