Rays vs. Yankees Preview

The Rays come to the Bronx for the final four games before the All-Star Break.  Although the Rays are 4 games out of first place in the AL East, they have potential to make some headway over their next few series'.  They have these four games against the Yankees, then following the All-Star break they host the Red Sox followed by another series against the Yankees. If they can split these games, they will be right back in the fight for the AL East title.  This might be easier said than done though, as the Rays aren’t playing their best ball.  They lost two of three to the reds a week ago, then won two of three from the Cardinals before returning to the AL, where they lost two of three from the ailing Twins.  They barely escaped a sweep in Minnesota but not for a total breakdown in the Twins bullpen yesterday. Overall, they are about a .500 team.

The Yankees have been hot lately although they did drop 2 of 3 to the Indians in Cleveland this week.  Although they lost 2 of 3, they still played good ball and could have won all the games had AJ not collapsed following 6 scoreless innings, and Mitre not allowed any runs in last night’s loss.  The Yankees are 7-3 in their last ten games and are 28-18 at home.  This should be a good series as the Rays haven’t come to the Bronx this season yet, and have a good record on the road at 27-18 compared to their 21-21 record in Tampa. 

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Thursday: Jeff Niemann (3-4, 5.05) vs Bartolo Colon (6-3, 2.88)

-Colon is seeking his 5^th straight win.  He came off the DL prior to his last start against the Mets where he pitched 6 shutout innings while striking out 6. 

-Colon has the lowest ERA for a Yankees starter

-Over his past three starts, Colon is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 16 strikeouts

-Niemann pitched this past Saturday against the Cardinals allowing only 1 run and struck out 5.  He will be making his 4^th start since coming off the DL, and is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA over his last three games with 12 strikeouts

-Niemann was the pitcher to give up hit # 2721 to Derek Jeter, when Jeter tied Lou Gehrig for the most hits in pinstripes.  During that game, Jeter had 3 hits against Niemann.  Jeter is 5-9 with 2 doubles off Niemann.

Friday: Jeremy Hellickson (8-7, 3.21) vs Freddy Garcia (7-6, 3.13)

-Garcia pitched a strong 7 innings in his last outing on Sunday against the Mets allowing only one run.  Mo ultimately blew the save before the yanks lost in extra innings.

-Garcia is 2-0 over his last three starts with a 1.35 ERA, but only 6 strikeouts over those three games

-Johnny Damon has some good numbers against Garcia, as he is hitting .316 over 19 at bats.  Unfortunately for Damon, it looks like he won’t be playing after being hit by two pitches yesterday and being removed from the game.  He is day to day.

-Hellickson has never started against the Yankees, although he has appeared in relief against them last season.  If this is anything like other young pitchers facing the Yankees for the first time, it could be a long day for the Yanks!

-Hellickson last pitched against the Cardinals this past weekend allowing 3 runs on 6 hits to get the win.  This win snapped his 4 game losing streak.

-Hellickson has allowed 7 home runs over his past 5 starts.  He also has some control issues as his BB/9IP ratio is 3.39/9IP.  The yanks need to stay patient, and hopefully drill a few balls over the fence.

-Hellickson is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA over his last three starts, with 14 strikeouts.

Saturday: David Price (8-7, 3.56) vs AJ Burnett (8-7, 4.12)

-AJ totally fell apart in his last start during the 7^th inning following 6 shutout innings.  In the 7^th, AJ allowed 4 runs and took the loss to the Indians

-Burnett is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA and 15 strikeouts over his last 3 starts.

-Longoria is hitting .375 off Burnett over 32 at bats

-David Price took his first loss on the road since May 21 this past week against the Twins.  In that start Price allowed 4 runs on 5 hits.

-Price is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a whopping 28 strikeouts in his last 3 games!

-On the bright side of things, Nick Swisher is hitting .357 off Price over 14 at bats.

Sunday: James Shields (8-6, 2.47) vs. CC Sabathia (12-4, 2.90)

-This should be a great matchup and is a great way to end regular season play before the All-Star Break! 

-CC has been absolutely dominant lately and just got his 12^th win of the season, being the first pitcher to get 12 wins in MLB this season.  In his last start he struck out 11 batters over 7 innings of shutout baseball.

-CC is 3-0 with a .40 ERA and an amazing 33 strikeouts over his past three games.

-Longoria bats .316 off CC over 19 at bats with 2 Home Runs

-BJ Upton is batting .300 against CC over 30 at bats with 2 Home Runs

-Johnny Damon is hitting .333 over 9 at bats against Sabathia

-Ben Zobrist is batting .320 off CC in 25 at bats

-Shields is coming off a subpar start where he lasted only 6 innings and giving up 3 runs on 6 hits.

-Shields is 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 24 strikeouts over his past three games

-Cano is hitting .390 off Shields in 41 at bats with 3 Homers

-Jeter is hitting .340 off Shields in 50 at bats.

-Jorge Posada is hitting .296 off Shields in 27 at bats.

SIDE NOTES:  In case you have been living under a rock… Jeter is 3 hits shy of 3000 and has 4 games at home to try and hit the milestone.

Arod is batting .397 over his past 15 games with 10 RBI’s

Wade Davis was placed on the DL today and the Rays called up Gomes as a reliever in his place in order to bolster their bullpen against the Yankees.

Longoria is questionable to play during this series due to a nerve issue in his foot

Matt Joyce has slowed down considerably since his early tear.  Since June 1 he is batting .160 with a .219 on base percentage.

You Can Read All About CC Sabathia RIGHT HERE

Bring On the Lefties

Girardi has put together two different lineups when the Yankees are facing a righty pitcher versus a lefty pitcher.  When facing off against a lefty Andruw Jones starts over either Gardner who has been struggling or Posada who can’t hit a lefty (Lefty Lineup) and when they face off against a righty, Posada starts as DH (Righty Lineup).  Much of the lineup remains the same although Girardi has been giving some of the guys random days off for rest.  

The Rule

Looking at these two lineups, the Yankees have been very successful against lefties.  They have only faced 9 lefty starters throughout the first month of the season, but they have faced quite a few lefty relief pitchers.  The results are impressive as the team’s “Lefty Lineup” batting average against lefty’s is .270 while the “Righty Lineup” has a .239 batting average.  A 40 point jump can be dramatic when the team has been struggling offensively as of late.  Even more impressive is a few guys’ batting average increases.

The Most dramatic jump is for Nick Swisher who is hitting a mere .141 against righties, but when he faces off against a lefty, he hits .400!  Swish’s on base percentage jumps to .444 when facing against a lefty.  That means when he goes to the plate against a lefty, there is nearly a 50% chance he will reach base!  Girardi may want to consider bumping Swisher to the top of the lineup against lefties if he can keep up these numbers.

Jeter is another player whose numbers jump when facing a lefty pitcher.    Surprising enough, even with Jeter’s sub par first month, he is actually batting .313 against lefties, with a .405 on base percentage.  He only bats .235 against righties. That is over a 75 point jump in his numbers when facing lefties.  I suppose that is why Girardi has been batting him leadoff against lefties.

Brett Gardner has been off to a slow start in the first month and is hitting a meager .197 against righties, but when he faces lefties, his average jumps to .286.  That is nearly 100 points added to his average!  Texeira has about a 100 point jump when facing a lefty as well.  Tex’s average against lefties is .333 compared to only .219 against righties.  Of course Andruw Jones has better numbers against lefties, and that is why he starts games against lefties.  Jones’ average against lefties is .231 compared to .200 against righties.

Exception to the Rule

Of course there are a few exceptions to the rule and of course, Arod is on that list.  Arod bats .286 against righties while only .200 against lefties.  This stays consistent to his career average against lefties coming in higher at .289 compared to .307 against righties.  This does seem unusual though as Arod bats righty, and should theoretically have a higher average against lefty.   Cano joins Arod as the exception to the rule as he is batting .313 against righties and .270 against lefties.  No different than Arod, Cano’s career splits are better when facing off against lefties.  He hits .296 against lefties compared to .314 against righties.  

Granderson had started off very hot against lefties after working with Kevin Long last August but in the last week, his average against lefties dropped from .318 to .258.  Granderson went 0-2 against Holland on Friday, which attributed to the drop in average.  He is batting .269 against righty’s.  Granderson has always been known to have problems when facing lefties, but he has made significant strides since coming to the Yankees.

AND THE CATCHERS

One of the bigger surprises was Russell Martin who seems to struggle against lefties and is only hitting .136 against them, compared to .304 against righties.  In fact, Martin has hit 6 of his 7 homers off righties.  This issue (if it is actually an issue) can be tinkered with by substituting Martin with Cervelli when they are facing lefties.  Although Cervelli has only played one game so far so we don’t have a sample for 2011, his career splits against lefties is higher than righties.  Cervelli hits .328 against lefties compared to .247 against righties.  His 2010 numbers were similar as well since he hit only .246 against righties and .322 against lefties.  It’s obviously much easier said than done, to replace Martin when facing a lefty, as there are more variables involved with a catcher such as the Yankees starting pitcher, but it could lead to better offensive production.

Although he has not caught a game, Posada is still considered a catcher by me.  Posada is batting .192 against righties and is batting 0 against lefties.  In his 29 plate appearances against lefties, he has yet to get one hit.  His numbers are the biggest cause for concern on the team in my opinion.

I wonder if we could see some changes to the lineup throughout the season if these lefty trends continue.  If Swish continues his .444 on base percentage it would be crazy to not keep him in the top of the order so Tex, Arod or Cano could drive him home.

Friday Night Lights In the Bronx

The Blue Jays are in town as part of their 11 day road trip.  They are coming off a strong series against the Texas Rangers where they took 3 of 4 games in Arlington.  The Yankees are ready for this three game divisional series after splitting the last 4 games with the White Sox.  The Yankees offense was non-existent the first two games against the Sox due to the White Sox pitchers throwing an obscene amount of breaking balls to keep the Yankees from hitting Home Runs. (Pretty smart strategy).  The Yanks were able to grab the next two games with explosive offensive production, especially during last nights game where they scored 12 runs.

The Yankees now lead the AL East by 1.5 games & have not lost a home series yet!

TONIGHT'S STARTERS

Ricky Romero: 1-3, 3.00 ERA vs. Freddy Garcia: 1-0, .69 ERA

Romero has lost his last three starts, but pitched extremely well in his last game against the Tampa Bay Rays.  Romero struck out 10 batters, and only allowed 5 hits.  The Jays gave Romero no run support and they lost 2-0.  The 2 runs allowed by Romero was from a Ben Zobrist home run.  (Zobrist is dangerous at the plate this year!)

Romero is 2-2 against the Yankees with a 5.70 ERA over his career

• Brett Gardner is hitting .444 off Romero.  Career stat.
• Swisher is hitting .308 off Romero.  Career stat.
• Cano is 2 for 16 against Romero.  Career stat.

Garcia has only started twice for the Yankees this season, but each performance was solid. In his first start against the Rangers, he pitched 6 scoreless innings.  He followed that up with an even more impressive second start against the Orioles, pitching 6 scoreless innings, but striking out 7 along the way.  Not bad for a veteran making a mere 1.5 mil this year!

UPDATED @ 4PM:  Francisco Cervelli is off the DL and back the with New York Yankees. Gustavo Molina has been optioned down to AAA.

Todays Lineup

Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Texeira 1B
Arod 3B
Cano 2B
Jones DH
Granderson CF
Martin C
Gardner LF

YANKEES NOTES

The Yankees have won 21 of the past 35 games against the Blue Jays in Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees pitching has been outstanding as of late.  Following CC Sabathia's performance last night, the Yankees starting pitchers have allowed only 1 earned run or less over the fast 5 games.  Each of those starters has pitched into the 7th inning allowing the overworked bullpen to rest a bit.  Their ERA over these past 5 games is .76.  UNBELIEVABLE!

During the 5th inning in last night's game against the White Sox, the 1st 9 Yankees reached base without any outs.  This is the first time since 2002 this has happened.

Cano is on quite a hot streak.  Although he lost his hitting streak, he still has hit in 19 of the 22 games played this season.  He has also hit safely in the past 16 of 17 games. 

The last save that Soriano has received was against the Blue Jays during that two game set in Toronto last week.

Swisher is batting .458 when hitting right handed this season.

Granderson is batting .318 against lefties this season.

BLUE JAYS NOTES

The Blue Jays are 6-8 on the road this season, after taking 3 of 4 from Texas.

Jose Bautista is ON FIRE!  Bautista has reached based safely in 21 of 22 games played this season.  He is now batting .360 which leads the AL.  Bautista also leads the league with 8 home runs.

Adam Lind was hot during the Jays previous series against the Rangers going 8-17 in those four games with 3 home runs.

Juan Rivera is on a 7 game hitting streak.


SIDE NOTES:  25 Years ago Today, Roger Clemens struck out 20 batters against the Seattle Mariners, becoming the first pitcher to ever strike out 20 batters.  Unfortunately, he was on the Red Sox at the time.

Andrew Brackman will face off against Jake Peavy tonight for the AAA Scranton Yankees.

Struggling Sox Come To The Bronx

The Yankees come back to the Bronx today and begin a 7 Day Homestand.  The first games are against the struggling White Sox before the Blue Jays come to town this weekend.  The Yankees are on a three game winning streak.

The White Sox have lost 10 of their last 11 games, and are in last place in the AL Central.  During these past 11 games, the Sox are batting only .193.  They were just swept in a three game series in Detroit and are now 8-14 on the year.

The Yankees have won 18 of the past 26 games against the White Sox (going back to 2001)

The Yankees won 4 of the 6 games they played the White Sox in 2010.

Here are the pitching matchups

Monday Night

AJ Burnett (3-0, 4.37 ERA) vs.  Phil Humber (1-2, 4.42 ERA)

Humber began the season in the bullpen for the Sox and will be making his 4^th start tonight.

Humber’s last outing was at Tropicana Field last week against the Rays where he allowed 4 runs over 5 1/3 innings.  He pitched well except for allowing a home run.

Humber has never started against the Yankees before.

Humber has pitched a total of 21 innings this year in 5 games allowing 9 earned runs and 19 hits.

Humber has a 7.36 Career ERA in Road Games

AJ would be 4-0 if it wasn’t for Mo’s blown save last week.  (As I read this back to myself, I almost started laughing as it sounds so bizarre)

AJ still hasn’t pitched beyond 6 1/3 innings.

Tuesday Night

Ivan Nova (1-2, 7.63 ERA) vs. Gavin Floyd (2-1, 4.00 ERA)

Floyd won his last start against the Rays at Tropicana Field striking out 7 batters.

Brett Gardner has a .600 batting average against Floyd in 6 appearances.

Nova is making his 4^th start of the season and hoping that his fastball can stay down in the zone.  If he can keep his fastball down, he may actually make it into the 6^th or 7^th inning.

Nova has not started a game since April 15.  He was called for one inning of relief work last week.

Wednesday Night

Bartolo Colon (1-1, 3.50 ERA) vs. Mark Buehrle (1-2, 5.40 ERA)

Buehrle is the only lefty the Yankees will see this series

Buehrle is attempting for the 5th time, to get his 150^th win.  He has not gotten a win since Opening Day.

Buehrle’s last game was Friday in Detroit where he took the loss allowing 6 runs over 5 2/3 innings.  He allowed 8 hits and struck out 5.

Robinson Cano’s batting average is .455 against Buerhle over 11 at bats.

Bartolo Colon is still high from his first start last week allowing only 2 runs over 6 2/3 innings.  Colon looked great in his last start and is again trying to claim a spot in the rotation.

Colon has already struck out 20 batters in 18 innings.

Thursday Night

CC Sabathia  (1-1, 2.73 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson (2-2, 4.48 ERA)

Jackson is not having a good year and has already given up 39 hits over 31 innings, but he has struck out 30 batters.

Jackson has given up 23 hits in his previous two starts.

Sabathia finally got his first win of the season on Saturday after pitching 8 innings and allowing only 3 runs. 

SIDE NOTES:

Robinson Cano has a 13 game hitting streak and is batting .345 in that period.

Adam Dunn is struggling this season.  He has only two hits in his last 30 at bats with 15 strikeouts!

Curtis Granderson has an 8 game hitting streak and is hitting .424 in that period with 9 RBI’s.  Granderson has 4 home runs in the last 5 games!

Hughes threw a bullpen session today before batting practice began and was shut down early.  This doesn't look good for Hughes.

Rafael Soriano was not available yesterday due to a sore back.  No word yet as to whether he is available today.  All we know is that it’s not considered serious.

Countdown to 3000

Derek Jeter now has 2945 hits and needs only 55!  Jeter had 4 hits Sunday against the Orioles.

Jeter is batting .519 in his last 7 home games against the White Sox.

Homer Happy!!

The Yankees just split the last two games with the Blue Jays after a solid outing by Bartolo Colon to uplift the team after Mariano’s blown save.  (I guess Mo is a mere mortal after all).  They have now won 6 of the past 8 games they played and are holding onto first place in the AL East.  In fact, they are still the only team with a winning record in the AL East.  Tampa is in second with a .500 record.

The biggest stat to jump out during this first three weeks of the season, is the amount of home runs the Yankees are hitting.  They now lead all of MLB with 30 Home Runs on the season in only 16 games!  The Yanks have now hit a homer in 14 of the 16 games played so far.

Oh Curtis you are something sort of Grandish

Curtis Granderson & Mark Texeira are the team leaders, each hitting 6 homeruns.  Granderson has actually hit a homer in each of the past three games.  Hopefully he will bring that slugging streak with him into Camden yards this weekend.  Howie Kendrick is the only other player in the AL has 6 homeruns.

Jorge Juiced One

Jorge Posada has the third most homeruns with 5.  This is somewhat unusual as Posada only has 8 hits on the season, and 5 of those hits are homeruns.  Posada is tied with Miguel Cabrera on Detroit & Nelson Cruz on Texas.  I would say that is pretty good company for Posada to be in.

An A-Bomb for A-Rod

Robinson Cano, Russell Martin & Alex Rodriguez each have 4 homeruns.  Arod is on fire this year and after giving everyone a big scare with a possible injury, he was back in the lineup yesterday and crushed another home run. 

Cano is on a hot streak as well.  He has an 11 game hitting streak this season.

The only everyday players without a home run are Nick Swisher, Derek Jeter & Brett Gardner.  Nick Swisher is really beginning to heat up though, so I am sure the bombs will start dropping soon.  It may be a little longer for Jeter & Gardner.

On an interesting side note, the Yankees are the only team in MLB to NOT have scored 4 or more runs in an inning this season.  I have a feeling that could change soon.

You're on the Mark, Texeira!

Mark Texeira is known for his slow offensive starts to a season, but last year was very different.  In 2010 Texeira batted a career low .256.  The only month he batted over .300 was in July when he had a great month and hit .344.  The other months ranged from .136 in April to .289 in August.  Needless to say, Texeira looked pretty awful last year.  His redemption last year was the gold glove award.

Throughout all the troubles Texeira had last year, Girardi never moved him from the #3 spot.  Hopefully we will see a change in Texeira this year, but just in case we don’t, I think it would be fair to move him out of the #3 spot.  In his place I would have Robinson Cano hitting third.  Cano is coming off his best year yet and shows even more promise for the coming season.  Reports from the offseason about Cano indicated that he was working out all winter long in the Domican Republic along with Francisco Cervelli.

Last year Cano batted .319 with a .381 on base percentage and a career high slugging percentage of .534.  Overall Cano’s numbers get better and better each year.  There is no longer any reason for Cano to bat #5.  When was the last time a player with the best batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage for any team batted fifth?  Although I’m sure the guys at Elias could shed some light on that stat, it makes very little sense.  Especially when the #3 batter only hit .256, and looked downright lost for easily half the season.  It’s time for Girardi to make the move and allow Cano more at bats to help the team’s offensive numbers. 

As much as I love Texeira and I truly believe he will make a dramatic change in his offensive numbers this season, Girardi needs to man up and and tell Texeira that he is bumped from the #3 spot.  Allowing a struggling slugger to bat third only costs the team much needed runs.