Yankees vs Red Sox Preview

Here we are in August and both the Yankees and Red Sox are tied for 1^st place with records 68-42.  One of these teams will come out of this weekend in first place and looking for home field advantage in the playoffs as the division winner.  The Yankees come into this series red hot with a 7 game winning streak where they outscored their opponents 63-19.  They have also won 8 of their last 10 games. The Red Sox come into this series after splitting a 4 game set with Cleveland and taking 2 of 3 in Chicago.  Boston has won 10 of the last 15 games they played and 6 of their last 10.

The last time these two teams played was back on June 9^th in the Bronx and the Yankees were swept. Now it’s time for some vindication and they Yankees are looking to keep their offensive numbers going and hopefully walk out of this series claiming 1^st place.  Although it’s only August and they will meet twice more, these games are very important and that is why Colon was bumped to start Friday’s game. 

I think the keys for the Yankees to win this series are to score runs early as Boston’s bullpen has been shut down in the final three innings.  If the Yankees can manufacture some early runs similar to what they have been doing over the last 30 games or so, they can take 2 of 3.  The Yankees pitchers will need to be careful with the Boston batters as their lineup is tough and will make them pay for any mistake.  

Here's an in depth look at the Red Sox Bullpen Situation

PITCHING MATCHUPS

FRI: Bartolo Colon (8-6, 3.30 ERA) vs. John Lester (11-4, 3.17 ERA)

-Colon pitched last Saturday against the Orioles and struggled a bit with his command but was able to pitch well enough for the win.  He allowed only 2 runs on 5 hits, but used 105 pitches so he was pulled from the game following the 5^th innings.

-Colon is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his last 3 starts with 19 strikeouts

-Colon is 3-3 on the road in the 10 games he started this season.  His road ERA is 2.83 with 55 strikeouts and 1 complete game shutout against the A’s.

-Colon has faced the Red Sox twice this season and allowed only 3 runs over 10 1/3 innings with 9 strikeouts, but allowed 10 hits.  Colon wasn’t at his best against the Red Sox and had to be pulled early from each game.

-Marco Scutaro is hitting .571 against Colon

-Lester is coming off a strong start against the White Sox last weekend after he pitched a solid 8 innings allowing only 2 runs and 4 hits.

-Opponents are hitting .245 off Lester this season

-Lester is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 8 starts at Fenway park this season

-Lester is 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 19 strikeouts over his last three starts

-Lester is 8-1 against the Yankees in his young career with a 3.56 ERA.  He has pitched a total of 86 innings and struck out 92 yankee batters.

SAT: CC Sabathia (16-5, 2.55 ERA) vs. John Lackey (9-8, 6.23 ERA)

-CC wasn’t his sharpest in his last outing against the White Sox this past week but managed to get the win after pitching 8 full innings.  He did allow 10 hits as he labored through the start but allowed the White Sox to score only 2 runs.  Even when CC doesn’t have his A-Game, he still finds a way to get the win.

-CC is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 28 strikeouts over his last 3 games

-CC is 9-1 since June 14^th with a 1.01 ERA over his previous 8 games

-CC has 3 of his 5 losses this season against the Red Sox.  In those 3 games, he’s allowed 24 hits, 9 walks, 13 runs in 19 innings with only 15 strikeouts.  Clearly, he hasn’t pitched his best against Boston…. Yet!

-Carl Crawford is hitting .325 against CC

-Marco Scutaro is hitting .318 against CC

-Youk is hitting .409 against CC

-John Lackey is having another poor season for the Red Sox and had another subpar outing this past week against the Indians allowing 5 runs on 8 hits over 6 2/3 innings.  Although many Boston fans thought this was a step in the right direction for Lackey as he lasted into the 7^th inning, he still made errors  & allowed back to back home runs.  You can read more about Lackey’s Dissapointing season HERE

-Lackey pitched against the Yankees once this season and allowed 7 hits and 6 runs over 5 innings.

-Lackey is 2-0 with a 4.19 ERA and 12 strikeouts over his last 3 games

-Chavez is hitting .300 against Lackey

-Jeter is hitting .343 against lackey

-Posada is hitting .556 against Lackey

Sun: Freddy Garcia (10-7, 3.22 ERA) vs Josh Beckett (9-4, 2.20 ERA)

-Garcia has now won his past three starts and in those starts he has a 2.21 ERA with 18 strikeouts.  This game against Boston should prove more difficult for him as they are a hard hitting offensive team. It will be a big test for the Big Chief to see how his soft throws will hold up against this offense

-Garcia is 0-2 against the Red Sox this season

-Garcia has a 2.88 ERA on the road this season with 43 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched

-Beckett shut down the Yankees in the last Sunday night game they played allowing only 2 hits over 8 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts.  Beckett looked solid on the mound against the Yankees in every game he’s pitched against the Yankees this season.  In the 21 innings pitched versus the yanks, Beckett has allowed only 10 hits and 2 earned runs over 21 innings while striking out 23!

-Beckett is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 22 strikeouts over his last three starts

-Beckett has started 21 games this season for the Red Sox and they have only lost 5 of those games

-Beckett’s ERA is 2.20 which is second best in the AL.  His WHIP is .92 which is 2^nd in the AL.  He has allowed only 91 hits which is the lowest for the AL.

-Cano is hitting .339 against Beckett with 12 RBI’s

-Jeter is hitting .200 against Beckett with 9 RBI’s

It Could Be Worse

I think it’s fair to assume that most Yankee fans are a bit frustrated with AJ Burnett as he has never really panned out as the #2 starter that we anticipated.  When he was signed in 2009, I think everyone envisioned him to be at least a capable starter who could keep the Yankees in the game.  Ultimately, It seems that AJ may be one of the worst signings for the Yanks in recent memories.  I’m sure everyone will get on Cashman for this signing, but Cashman isn’t the only GM out there making bad signings.  It’s just the nature of the beast.

By all accounts, Theo Epstein is a great GM up in Boston and has delivered two World Series for Boston fans.  It seems like anytime these two teams play on national television, Epstein gets thrown on TV from his luxury box and the ESPN announcers kiss his butt about what an incredible job he is doing in structuring this team.  But Epstein made a signing very similar to the Burnett signing, which may actually be worse yet he doens't seem to take the heat, the way Cashman does.  I’m talking about signing John Lackey to a 5 year deal, which is possibly the worst signing Epstein made since becoming the GM.

Prior to the 2010 season, the Red Sox signed Lackey to a 5 year deal worth 82.5 million dollars.  A year before that, the Yankees signed Burnett for the same amount of 82.5 million over 5 years as well.  Their contracts are nearly identical, as far as money goes, except Lackey actually got a 3.5 million dollar signing bonus on top of the crazy money they pay him over the next 5 years.  I actually wonder whether Boston signed Lackey in response to the Yankees winning the World Series – A Reaction signing to which Yankee fans are all too familiar. 

Since coming to the Red Sox, Lackey has been a failure.  In his first season with the Sox in 2010, he went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.  Anytime he faced a strong offensive lineup he struggled and anytime there seemed to be a high-pressure situation, he crumbled.  2011 has actually fared worse for Lackey as he is 9-8 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. 

From the moment that he arrived in Boston all his numbers dropped including his strikeouts.  In 2005 Lackey had a 8.6K/9IP strikeout ratio which was the best of his career, followed by several years that were around 7K’s/9IP.  Since coming to the Red Sox, Lackey’s strikeout ratio dove down to 6.5K/9IP in 2010 and sunk again in 2011 to 6.1K/9IP.  If you take a look at his ERA, Lackey’s best season was 2007 with 3.00, but then it went downhill with 3.75 in 2008 and 3.83 in 2009 before coming to Boston.  Once in Boston those numbers became inflated to 4.40 and 6.23.  Even his WHIP has jumped from 1.2 (and change) in 2006 – 2009 up to 1.55 this season.  With his numbers slipping gradually each year, I don’t see any indication these numbers will ever get better and he is signed through 2014.

It looks like all GM’s make some bad signings every now and then.  I’m not ready to just give up on AJ yet (as I would if Lackey was with the Yanks) but I am certainly not happy when I watch him start to give up a 13-1 lead against the White Sox and have to be pulled in the 5^th inning.  It’s somewhat embarrassing to have a #2 starter on the New York Yankees who has a losing record of 8-9 and hasn’t won a game since June when the team is 25 games above the .500 mark.  That being said, it’s still better than Lackey! 

Here's another Look At Theo Epstein & How He Built Up The Red Sox Bullpen

Check Out The Yankees & Red Sox Series Preview Here

Shipping Up to Boston

The Yankees are taking their first road trip this weekend to Fenway Park for the Red Sox home opener.  After the first week of games, the Yankees are 4-2 winning 2 series against the Tigers & Twins.  The Red Sox who were touted to be the best team in MLB for 2011, have had a terrible start and have lost every game they have played so far.  (It's the curse of Sports Illustrated predicting they would win the World Series)   But now they are going back home for an 11 Day homestand.  I'm sure with their poor start they are itching to play in Boston.... it should make for an interesting series!


The Yankees have overall looked pretty solid.  They are hitting the ball well especially for power, and the pitching has been everything they were hoping for.  The Yankees are 463-446-4 against Boston in Fenway, all time.

I just couldn't resist throwing this pic in!  Still my favorite game!

The Red Sox have looked awful.  This season they are 7-44 with runners in scoring position, and have only scored 16 runs in their last 6 games.  They are coming off their road trip in Texas and Cleveland, back to Fenway.  Boston hasn't been swept by the Indians since August of 2001!


In the offseason, Boston lost their catcher, Victor Martinez to free agency.   This was quite a gamble for the Red Sox as they were left with the aging Jason Varitek and Jarred Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher.  Saltalamacchia has had a very poor start to the season.  In his first three games of the season, he went 0-10 with 5 strikeouts.  He is batting .071 over the last 6 games.  He swings at Everything!  Saltalamacchia has not been much better behind the plate either.  He caught Lester's first appearance against the Rangers, when Lester allowed 5 ER over 5 innings without one strikeout.  He wasn't much help to Lackey either in game two when Lackey allowed 9 runs over 3 innings.  This was followed up by Buchholz's game when he allowed 4 runs over 6 innings.  Of course it comes down to the pitchers, but I believe that if Varitek was behind the plate things wouldn't gotten so out of hand.

The Red Sox did make some good moves this offseason by aquiring Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.  Crawford was a great pickup for left field.  He is a quality outfielder who is only 29 years old, and left field in Fenway is small to begin with.  He should have no problems adapting to the new ballpark.  Although Crawford is off to a slow offensive start, his 2010 numbers are impressive.  He had a .307 batting average with a .495 slugging percentage, driving in 19 HR's with Tampa.

Adrian Gonzalez helps fill the middle of Boston's batting order as the cleanup hitter.  His numbers for 2010 are impressive as well.  Gonzalez hit .298 last season driving in 31 home runs with a .511 slugging percentage. 








 Pitching Matchups


Friday (2PM Game): Phil Hughes vs John Lackey

 -This should prove to be a good matchup for Hughes who is coming off a tough start.  Hughes only lasted 4 innings giving up 5 runs on 5 hits.  Hughes' velocity was down which should be a concern going into Fenway.  Fortunately, Lackey is coming off an even worse start.

-The middle of Boston's order could have a field day with Hughes if he isn't sharp today.  Hughes gives up a lot of home runs, and both Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis and Ortiz are home run threats.


-In Lackey's start he allowed 9 runs on 10 hits against the Rangers.  He only lasted 3 and 2/3 innings.  He looked terrible and paid for it.



Saturday:  Ivan Nova vs Bucholz


Sunday:  CC Sabathia vs Josh Beckett


Side Notes

Yankees skipped Freddy Garcia's start after the rain out Thursday.  Garcia won't pitch again until April 15 against the Rangers.  His last start was the final spring training game.


The Yankees played the Red Sox on Opening Day last season in Fenway.  The Yankees loss that day taking a 9-7 loss by Chan Ho Park.  The Yankees came back to win the next two games.  Chan Ho Park redeemed himself getting the win in Game 3 of that series.

QUICK UPDATE @ 12:30PM

The Red Sox just activated Felix Doubront from the disabled list for today's game.  They have released Denny Reyes.  Both are left handed relief pitchers, but Reyes has been horrible through the first 6 games allowing.  It comes as no surprise that Reyes will be designated for assignment.  He has faced 10 batters in 5 games and allowed 6 to reach base.  That is not what anybody is looking for in their bullpen.

This was kind of surprising though after Reyes' spring.  He pitched very well during spring training and even beat out Alfredo Aceves for that last bullpen spot.  But this once again proves that spring training numbers mean nothing.
Countdown for Jeter

• Jeter only needs 69 more hits before he hits 3000!

Time to Worry About Hughes????

After Sunday's poor performance, Hughes is getting a lot of attention about his velocity, or lack thereof.  He averaged about 88 mph yesterday and was mostly throwing his fastball around 87 - 89 mph, although he did top out in the 1st inning with  91 mph. He never hit 91 again for the rest of the game, (he only went 4 innings) and the Tigers never took a swing and missed on Hughes' fastball the entire game.

All the attention about his velocity is coming from the media and it may be a little premature to begin worrying.  I mean, how come the media isn't talking about Jeter's offense over the last three games?  Jeter only squeezed out two infield singles that weren't hit hard this past weekend.

This should not be something everyone is terribly concerned with.... just yet, but it must be looked at over the next few starts.  I would go farther and say the velocity must be gauged when the weather warms up a bit.  It simply could just be the cold weather that Hughes isn't used to yet.  Joba's velocity was down yesterday as well in the 85-88 mph range.  The problem with the Weather issue though is, scouts were reporting that during spring training Hughes' velocity was low, and that was down in sunny Florida.  Hughes' next start is Friday in Boston (another cold weather city) against Lackey, and I am sure this will be the talk of every radio show Friday, but it seems a bit premature.  On the bright side, Lackey looked awful this past weekend in Texas.

I am more concerned about how many homeruns Hughes allows.  Last year, he gave up a career high 25 home runs in 31 starts and on Sunday he allowed Miguel Cabrera to hit 2.  The first of Cabrera's home runs came on an 88 mph fastball.  Although Cabrera owns Hughes and is 7-14 against him, Hughes must do something to prevent all these home runs this season, especially in Yankee Stadium.  It may be just building up his arm strength, or it could be working on his new cutter pitch, but something has to give.