Friday, August 5, 2011

Locking Down the 7th, 8th & 9th Innings

Since we have a big AL East showdown this weekend I took a look at the Red Sox bullpen to see how they have been holding up.  Yesterday I put up a post discrediting Theo Epstein's poor signing of John Lackey, but I got to give him some credit today for creating a tough bullpen.  By making some trades and developing a couple pitchers, Epstein has essentially shut down the 7th, 8th & 9th innings. They have the best strikeout to walk ratio in the AL with 2.70 and the best WHIP in the AL with 1.195.  The Yankees will need to do some damage early in these games if they want to score some runs!
9th Inning:  Jonathan Papelbon has been Boston’s most consistent closer over the last several years and this year is no different.  Right now, Jonny boy’s ERA is up at 3.35 which is somewhat deceiving as his WHIP is only at 1.02.  He’s done well this season and each month seems to be getting better.  In the month of July opponents only hit .208 off him, down from .242 in the month of June.  Papelbon is actually the only closer in MLB with a strikeout to walk ratio higher than 7.5, checking in at 7.7 (Mo is at 7.4)  He may not be lights out, but he is pretty damn good!
8th Inning:  This season Daniel Bard has taken over as the 8th inning set-up man and been doing an impressive job.  So impressive that I think there is a good chance the Red Sox may let Papelbon walk next season and replace him with Bard.  Bard did not allow ANY earned runs in the months of June and July – a total of 25 innings pitched.  In those 25 innings he allowed only 11 hits and struck out 24 batters.  This past week was the first time he surrendered any runs in over 7 weeks keeping his ERA down at 2.28 and a WHIP of .877.
7th Inning:  The 7th inning has been split up between four guys : Alfredo Aceves, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales & Dan Wheeler.  Each is given an opportunity to handle the 7th in various situations but Aceves has been a great surprise for Boston.  Opposing hitters are only hitting .204 against this crew with a .282 on base percentage in the 7th inning!
Aceves:  Aceves has been able to help the Red Sox both as a starter and a reliever, although he has only started 4 games in 27 appearances.  Aceves also shows the versatility to throw more than one inning which I’m sure Francona loves.  Right now his ERA is up at 3.16 on the season, but when you look at his numbers in relief he only has a 2.38 ERA and is holding opponents to a .196 batting average against him.  Since he has not had any injuries he has been able to pitch the entire season so far and has only gotten better as the season progresses.  In June Aceves held opponents to hitting .233 against him but in July he got hotter as opponents hit .174 off him.
Albers:  Albers is on fire this season and seems to be striking everyone out.  His strikeout ratio is 9K’s/9IP’s and in the month of June was 10.8K/9IP.  Albers has the best ERA of his career at 2.25 and the best WHIP of his career at 1.18 and just like the other relievers is getting hotter as the season continues.  During the month of June he had a 1.93 ERA in the 9 innings he pitched, and got better in July with a 0.00 ERA and a .975 WHIP.  In July he pitched 13 innings and had 16 strikeouts to give him a 10.8K/9IP ratio.
Morales:  Since coming to Boston Morales has only pitched 16 innings so it’s not a large sample size to look at but in that period he has 3 times as many striekouts than walks – 15 to 5 respectively.  Since coming to Boston his WHIP is down to 1.28.
Wheeler:  He started off the season terrible as his ERA in the months of March/April was 8.31, but since the month of April he has a 1.78 ERA and 4 times as many strikeouts than walks – 28 to 7. Wheeler had a hot July like the rest of the Red Sox and finished with a 2.08 ERA and .846 WHIP

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