Rays vs Yankees Series Preview

The Rays come to the Bronx tonight for a three game weekend set against the Yankees.  Although the Rays are most likely out of contention for the post-season since they are 8 ½ games back for the wild card spot, this series can still be exciting to watch.  The Rays will have their top three pitchers on the mound this weekend and will look to extend their 4 game winning streak, following a four game sweep against the Royals this past week.  The Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 but only 12-13 since the All-Star Break.

The Yankees just finished taking 2 of 3 from the Angels this past week, and if Mo hadn’t blown the save on Tuesday they would have the sweep.  Speaking of Mo, he also blew the save on Sunday against the Red Sox in the rubber game of that set, and nearly blew another save Thursday against the Angels but managed to give up a few runs but not the save.  You can read more about Mariano & The Bullpen HERE.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

FRIDAY: David Price (9-10, 3.89 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (16-6, 2.81 ERA)

-CC is coming off a tough loss against Boston allowing 7 runs over 6 innings.  4 of CC’s 6 losses have come against Boston.  Although he didn’t look good the other day against Boston, I don’t think it had much to do with the Red Sox as much as it had to do with CC just not having his good stuff.  Since tonight is a home game, I have a feeling that Sabathia will pitch a gem since his last 5 home starts are all wins with a 1.40 ERA.

-Sabathia  is 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA against the Rays this season in the 2 starts he pitched.  He only has allowed 2 runs over 17 innings.

-CC needs to watch out for Longoria who is 8 for 24 against the big man with 3 home runs.

-I am not sure what has happened to David Price in his last four starts but he went 0-3 with a 4.74 ERA.  Price’s last start was against the A’s and he got beat up pretty good allowing 4 runs on 7 hits on only 4 2/3 innings pitched.

-Price is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA in his 3 starts against the Yankees this season.  His last start against the Yankees was on July 9 when he allowed Derek Jeter’s 3000^th hit.  It seems like he hasn’t been the same since.

-Price will likely be using a mix of 4 seam & 2 seam fastballs, with a slider and changeup.  He has also been using a curveball more as the season progresses. 

SATURDAY: Phil Hughes (2-4, 7.11 ERA) vs Jeremy Hellickson (10-7, 3.05 ERA)

-I don’t really know what more to say about Phil Hughes other than he continues to be an enigma, similar to AJ, but I continue to have faith that Hughes will bounce back, unlike AJ.  Hughes had a great start against the White Sox last week and pitched 6 scoreless innings before the rain shortened the game.  He looked good in the start and his velocity is back up where it needs to be.  Now its about executing pitches consistently throughout the game.

-Hughes is 2-3 with a  4.55 ERA since coming off the DL, and will be making his first start of the season against the Rays tonight.

-Hughes is 1-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 7 strikeouts over his last 3 games

-Hellickson is a possible Rookie of the Year candidate for the American League and you can read more about that HERE. He has allowed 7 earned runs over his last 26 innings pitched and is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 11 strikeouts over his last 3 games.

-Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA since the All Star Break. 

-Hellickson has only pitched one game against the Yankees this season and held them to 2 runs over 7 innings.  He will use a mix of 2 and 4 seam fastballs that sit in the low 90’s, to set up the batter before using a changeup for his ‘out’ pitch as it sits in the mid to low 80’s.  Hellickson also has a curveball that he throws as well to keep batters off the fastballs.

SUNDAY: James Shields (11-9, 2.80 ERA) vs. Freddy Garcia (10-7, 3.16 ERA)

-Garcia is coming off a strong start against the Red Sox.  Although he only pitched 5 innings, he kept the tough Boston lineup guessing all day and only allowed 1 run.  It was a fairly impressive start for Garcia.

-Garcia pitched against the Rays last month and had 6 2/3 shutout innings.

-Garcia is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last 4 starts

-Shields is an absolute beast who has the Yankees number.  He has pitched a total of 22.2 innings against the Yankees this season and allowed only 4 runs, equaling a 1.59 ERA against them.  The only pitcher with a lower ERA against the Yankees is Beckett with a 1.0 ERA.

-Shields has pitched 8 complete games this season and two of them have come within the last 6 games he’s pitched including a complete game against Kansas City this past week to help the Rays sweep the Royals.

-Shields will throw a low 90’s fastball along with a cutter, to set up batters for his devastating changeup. He throws a curveball as well, but his big weapon is the changeup.

YANKEES NOTES

-The Yankees have won 5 of the 9 games they played against the Rays this season

-Brett Gardner is hitting .370 against the Rays this season

-Cano is 10-23 against the Rays with 2 home runs and 6 RBI’s this year

-The 9th inning has been a little tricky for Mo lately, but I dont think anybody is really that concerned with the late innings as they have been locked down by Mariano, Robertson & Soriano.  READ MORE HERE

RAYS NOTES

-The Rays called up Desmond Jennings from Triple-A about three weeks ago and he has been their new leadoff batter.  Although he has only played in 19 games, he is hitting .333 with a .422 on base % and .597 slugging % with 8 stolen bases. 

-Looking at the Rays lineup they have a decent offense:

Ben Zobrist is hitting .279 with a .371 OBP

Casey Kotchman is hitting .337 with a .398 OBP

Matt Joyce is hitting .283 with a .345 OBP

Johnny Damon is hitting .262 with a .317 OBP

AL Rookie Of The Year Candidates 2011

We are closing in on the end of the season and it’s about time to start discussing some possible Rookie of The Year Candidates, especially since we will see a handful of them during this next week. This past week the Yankees played the Angels before the Rays come to the Bronx, and then the Yankees go to Kansas City.  Each of these teams has a rookie of the year candidate, so let’s take a look.

ANGELS

Mark Trumbo has been a big addition to this Angels team this season at first base.  Not only does Trumbo make a solid defensive first baseman, he hits for power.  Trumbo was called up from the minors to replace Kendrys Morales, who still has never recovered from falling on his bat after celebrating a walk off home run last year… one of the more bizarre injuries I have ever seen.  Those were big shoes for Trumbo to fill as Morales hit .306 with 34 homeruns and 108 RBI’s back in 2009 (his last full season).  Trumbo has done a great job filling in and is hitting .261 with a .302 on base % and .493 slugging %.  He leads all rookies with a .796 OPS, 22 home runs, 63 RBI’s and 21 doubles. 

The scouting report on Trumbo is that he swings at too many pitches – especially outside the strike zone.  It’s a common rookie issue, but the Yankees exploited this against him during the past three games keeping him 2-11 during the series.

Although Trumbo doesn’t hit for average, the power numbers are ‘glamour stats’ which could be a big factor for him to win the Rookie of the Year.  He reminds me of Mark Texeira and his numbers are somewhat similar to Tex’s .247/.341/.512 line with 17 doubles, 32 homeruns and 86 RBI’s.  He’s Tex-Light

Jordan Walden pitched against the Yankees on Tuesday night and got the save when Mo blew the game.  I didn’t think Walden had a great outing, but he did get out of trouble thanks to Granderson getting caught stealing to end the game.  I doubt that Walden could actually win the rookie of the year award, but he’s worth a mention as he is a rookie closer which is somewhat unique.  His ERA is 2.74 with a 1.19 WHIP and he does have 26 saves but unfortunately he has 7 blown saves as well which I would think eliminates his name from contention.  He also gets wild and this causes his walk rate to balloon up to 3.3BB/9IP which is not what you want in a closer.  His control issues stem from the fact that he almost exclusively uses a fastball which hits 97 mph (about 80% of pitches) but if he can’t locate the fastball, then he has nothing else.

RAYS

Jeremy Hellickson will pitch Saturday against the Yankees for the second time this season following a great game against the Royals this past week where he allowed only 1 run over 7 1/3 innings.  In his first game against the Yankees he held them to a .192 batting average and struck out 7.  Hellickson has had a great season and since the All Star Break has been somewhat dominating.  In his past 4 starts since the All Star Break, Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA.  Overall, he has a 3.05 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and holds opposing batters to a .208 batting average (5^th best in the AL).  Hellickson only throws in the low 90’s with his fastball, but his changeup which he throws 30% of the time, is his ‘out’ pitch .

Hellickson is not a bad pick for the AL rookie of the year, but the Rays are keeping an eye on his innings limit and there is a chance he may be shut down early this season, especially with the Rays out of contention for the postseason.  If he gets shut down early, I think he could be eliminated from contention.

ROYALS

Eric Hosmer was the 3^rd overall pick in the 2008 draft by the Royals and has been considered a highly touted prospect since the draft which prompted the Royals to call up the 21 year old so early.  Since getting called up he is hitting .276 with a .332 on base % and a .764 OPS.  Hosmer has 10 home runs, 19 doubles and 48 RBI’s which pale in comparison to Trumbo’s numbers, but Hosmer is still a good young player with lots of potential.  His 10 home runs are 3^rd among AL rookies (Trumbo is #1, Arencibia is #2).  Hosmer seems to be having some difficulty with lefty pitchers as his line against lefties is .220/.271/.256 compared to strong numbers against righties at .300/.356/.508.  Sounds like he could use the Curtis Granderson treatment from Kevin Long to improve his numbers against lefties!

So far this season, Hosmer is 4 for 12 against the Yankees with 2 home runs and 4 RBI’s.  I don’t think he has the numbers for rookie of the year especially as he is competing with Trumbo who’s numbers are better but he is definitely a young prospect to keep an eye on over the next few seasons.

YANKEES

Ivan Nova is having a great season for the Yankees and he only seems to be getting better as the season progresses.  Although his ERA and WHIP are a bit inflated at 3.85 and 1.38 respectively, his numbers during the second half show improvement.  His second half ERA is 2.61 with a 1.01 WHIP compared to 4.12 and 1.47 in the first half.  In the month of July his ERA dropped to a 2.25 and in August so far is 2.63… the Yankees better not send him back to Triple-A after this 6 man rotation fails!  Even his strikeout ratio improved from 5K/9IP in the first half to 7K/9IP in the second half and that includes this past start against the Angels when he had 0 strikeouts! Nova’s clearly pitching much better now than he did at any point last season or the beginning of this year.  He seems to have gotten used to his surroundings and has not had a bad outing since May. 

It’s hard to say whether Nova will be a leading candidate for AL rookie of the year as I tend to be very biased when it comes to the Yankees, but I have watched him pitch all season and develop into a great starting pitcher which is reflected in his 11-4 record.  He has developed secondary pitches like his slider and curve ball to use in conjunction with his sinker and proven himself to be a worthwhile starter in the Yankees organization.

Eduardo Nunez is likely not going to even be considered for the rookie of the year, probably due to his fielding errors alone.  He doesn’t have enough playing time either as he is a utility infielder, but he deserves some credit as he has been doing a great job filling in throughout the infield when needed.  Nunez puts up decent offensive numbers and seems to come up big in clutch situations.  If he can get his fielding straightened out, he will get some more playing time at shortstop and third base as Jeter and Arod will need more rest over the next few season with Father time breathing down their necks.

RED SOX

Josh Reddick had the winning hit this past Sunday in Fenway to take the rubber game from the Yankees.  Reddick is the backup outfielder for the Red Sox and since he is backup, he doesn’t have enough playing time to compete for AL Rookie of the Year, but he is worth a honorable mention as he is hitting .322 with a .368 on base % and .895 OPS.

This is just a list of names that we have either seen over the past week or will see in the next week.  It is NOT an exhaustive list of candidates.  There are numerous guys on the candidate list who I didn’t mention, and in fact I think Michael Pineda will win the AL Rookie of the Year for Seattle, but since the Yanks aren’t playing the Mariner’s soon he was temporarily ignored.  I will come back to this post at some point later this season and update it all with all the leading candidates, but this should give you a good preview of the next week or two and who to keep an eye on.

Rays vs. Yankees Preview

The Rays come to the Bronx for the final four games before the All-Star Break.  Although the Rays are 4 games out of first place in the AL East, they have potential to make some headway over their next few series'.  They have these four games against the Yankees, then following the All-Star break they host the Red Sox followed by another series against the Yankees. If they can split these games, they will be right back in the fight for the AL East title.  This might be easier said than done though, as the Rays aren’t playing their best ball.  They lost two of three to the reds a week ago, then won two of three from the Cardinals before returning to the AL, where they lost two of three from the ailing Twins.  They barely escaped a sweep in Minnesota but not for a total breakdown in the Twins bullpen yesterday. Overall, they are about a .500 team.

The Yankees have been hot lately although they did drop 2 of 3 to the Indians in Cleveland this week.  Although they lost 2 of 3, they still played good ball and could have won all the games had AJ not collapsed following 6 scoreless innings, and Mitre not allowed any runs in last night’s loss.  The Yankees are 7-3 in their last ten games and are 28-18 at home.  This should be a good series as the Rays haven’t come to the Bronx this season yet, and have a good record on the road at 27-18 compared to their 21-21 record in Tampa. 

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Thursday: Jeff Niemann (3-4, 5.05) vs Bartolo Colon (6-3, 2.88)

-Colon is seeking his 5^th straight win.  He came off the DL prior to his last start against the Mets where he pitched 6 shutout innings while striking out 6. 

-Colon has the lowest ERA for a Yankees starter

-Over his past three starts, Colon is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 16 strikeouts

-Niemann pitched this past Saturday against the Cardinals allowing only 1 run and struck out 5.  He will be making his 4^th start since coming off the DL, and is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA over his last three games with 12 strikeouts

-Niemann was the pitcher to give up hit # 2721 to Derek Jeter, when Jeter tied Lou Gehrig for the most hits in pinstripes.  During that game, Jeter had 3 hits against Niemann.  Jeter is 5-9 with 2 doubles off Niemann.

Friday: Jeremy Hellickson (8-7, 3.21) vs Freddy Garcia (7-6, 3.13)

-Garcia pitched a strong 7 innings in his last outing on Sunday against the Mets allowing only one run.  Mo ultimately blew the save before the yanks lost in extra innings.

-Garcia is 2-0 over his last three starts with a 1.35 ERA, but only 6 strikeouts over those three games

-Johnny Damon has some good numbers against Garcia, as he is hitting .316 over 19 at bats.  Unfortunately for Damon, it looks like he won’t be playing after being hit by two pitches yesterday and being removed from the game.  He is day to day.

-Hellickson has never started against the Yankees, although he has appeared in relief against them last season.  If this is anything like other young pitchers facing the Yankees for the first time, it could be a long day for the Yanks!

-Hellickson last pitched against the Cardinals this past weekend allowing 3 runs on 6 hits to get the win.  This win snapped his 4 game losing streak.

-Hellickson has allowed 7 home runs over his past 5 starts.  He also has some control issues as his BB/9IP ratio is 3.39/9IP.  The yanks need to stay patient, and hopefully drill a few balls over the fence.

-Hellickson is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA over his last three starts, with 14 strikeouts.

Saturday: David Price (8-7, 3.56) vs AJ Burnett (8-7, 4.12)

-AJ totally fell apart in his last start during the 7^th inning following 6 shutout innings.  In the 7^th, AJ allowed 4 runs and took the loss to the Indians

-Burnett is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA and 15 strikeouts over his last 3 starts.

-Longoria is hitting .375 off Burnett over 32 at bats

-David Price took his first loss on the road since May 21 this past week against the Twins.  In that start Price allowed 4 runs on 5 hits.

-Price is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA and a whopping 28 strikeouts in his last 3 games!

-On the bright side of things, Nick Swisher is hitting .357 off Price over 14 at bats.

Sunday: James Shields (8-6, 2.47) vs. CC Sabathia (12-4, 2.90)

-This should be a great matchup and is a great way to end regular season play before the All-Star Break! 

-CC has been absolutely dominant lately and just got his 12^th win of the season, being the first pitcher to get 12 wins in MLB this season.  In his last start he struck out 11 batters over 7 innings of shutout baseball.

-CC is 3-0 with a .40 ERA and an amazing 33 strikeouts over his past three games.

-Longoria bats .316 off CC over 19 at bats with 2 Home Runs

-BJ Upton is batting .300 against CC over 30 at bats with 2 Home Runs

-Johnny Damon is hitting .333 over 9 at bats against Sabathia

-Ben Zobrist is batting .320 off CC in 25 at bats

-Shields is coming off a subpar start where he lasted only 6 innings and giving up 3 runs on 6 hits.

-Shields is 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 24 strikeouts over his past three games

-Cano is hitting .390 off Shields in 41 at bats with 3 Homers

-Jeter is hitting .340 off Shields in 50 at bats.

-Jorge Posada is hitting .296 off Shields in 27 at bats.

SIDE NOTES:  In case you have been living under a rock… Jeter is 3 hits shy of 3000 and has 4 games at home to try and hit the milestone.

Arod is batting .397 over his past 15 games with 10 RBI’s

Wade Davis was placed on the DL today and the Rays called up Gomes as a reliever in his place in order to bolster their bullpen against the Yankees.

Longoria is questionable to play during this series due to a nerve issue in his foot

Matt Joyce has slowed down considerably since his early tear.  Since June 1 he is batting .160 with a .219 on base percentage.

You Can Read All About CC Sabathia RIGHT HERE