AL Rookie Of The Year Candidates 2011

We are closing in on the end of the season and it’s about time to start discussing some possible Rookie of The Year Candidates, especially since we will see a handful of them during this next week. This past week the Yankees played the Angels before the Rays come to the Bronx, and then the Yankees go to Kansas City.  Each of these teams has a rookie of the year candidate, so let’s take a look.

ANGELS

Mark Trumbo has been a big addition to this Angels team this season at first base.  Not only does Trumbo make a solid defensive first baseman, he hits for power.  Trumbo was called up from the minors to replace Kendrys Morales, who still has never recovered from falling on his bat after celebrating a walk off home run last year… one of the more bizarre injuries I have ever seen.  Those were big shoes for Trumbo to fill as Morales hit .306 with 34 homeruns and 108 RBI’s back in 2009 (his last full season).  Trumbo has done a great job filling in and is hitting .261 with a .302 on base % and .493 slugging %.  He leads all rookies with a .796 OPS, 22 home runs, 63 RBI’s and 21 doubles. 

The scouting report on Trumbo is that he swings at too many pitches – especially outside the strike zone.  It’s a common rookie issue, but the Yankees exploited this against him during the past three games keeping him 2-11 during the series.

Although Trumbo doesn’t hit for average, the power numbers are ‘glamour stats’ which could be a big factor for him to win the Rookie of the Year.  He reminds me of Mark Texeira and his numbers are somewhat similar to Tex’s .247/.341/.512 line with 17 doubles, 32 homeruns and 86 RBI’s.  He’s Tex-Light

Jordan Walden pitched against the Yankees on Tuesday night and got the save when Mo blew the game.  I didn’t think Walden had a great outing, but he did get out of trouble thanks to Granderson getting caught stealing to end the game.  I doubt that Walden could actually win the rookie of the year award, but he’s worth a mention as he is a rookie closer which is somewhat unique.  His ERA is 2.74 with a 1.19 WHIP and he does have 26 saves but unfortunately he has 7 blown saves as well which I would think eliminates his name from contention.  He also gets wild and this causes his walk rate to balloon up to 3.3BB/9IP which is not what you want in a closer.  His control issues stem from the fact that he almost exclusively uses a fastball which hits 97 mph (about 80% of pitches) but if he can’t locate the fastball, then he has nothing else.

RAYS

Jeremy Hellickson will pitch Saturday against the Yankees for the second time this season following a great game against the Royals this past week where he allowed only 1 run over 7 1/3 innings.  In his first game against the Yankees he held them to a .192 batting average and struck out 7.  Hellickson has had a great season and since the All Star Break has been somewhat dominating.  In his past 4 starts since the All Star Break, Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA.  Overall, he has a 3.05 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and holds opposing batters to a .208 batting average (5^th best in the AL).  Hellickson only throws in the low 90’s with his fastball, but his changeup which he throws 30% of the time, is his ‘out’ pitch .

Hellickson is not a bad pick for the AL rookie of the year, but the Rays are keeping an eye on his innings limit and there is a chance he may be shut down early this season, especially with the Rays out of contention for the postseason.  If he gets shut down early, I think he could be eliminated from contention.

ROYALS

Eric Hosmer was the 3^rd overall pick in the 2008 draft by the Royals and has been considered a highly touted prospect since the draft which prompted the Royals to call up the 21 year old so early.  Since getting called up he is hitting .276 with a .332 on base % and a .764 OPS.  Hosmer has 10 home runs, 19 doubles and 48 RBI’s which pale in comparison to Trumbo’s numbers, but Hosmer is still a good young player with lots of potential.  His 10 home runs are 3^rd among AL rookies (Trumbo is #1, Arencibia is #2).  Hosmer seems to be having some difficulty with lefty pitchers as his line against lefties is .220/.271/.256 compared to strong numbers against righties at .300/.356/.508.  Sounds like he could use the Curtis Granderson treatment from Kevin Long to improve his numbers against lefties!

So far this season, Hosmer is 4 for 12 against the Yankees with 2 home runs and 4 RBI’s.  I don’t think he has the numbers for rookie of the year especially as he is competing with Trumbo who’s numbers are better but he is definitely a young prospect to keep an eye on over the next few seasons.

YANKEES

Ivan Nova is having a great season for the Yankees and he only seems to be getting better as the season progresses.  Although his ERA and WHIP are a bit inflated at 3.85 and 1.38 respectively, his numbers during the second half show improvement.  His second half ERA is 2.61 with a 1.01 WHIP compared to 4.12 and 1.47 in the first half.  In the month of July his ERA dropped to a 2.25 and in August so far is 2.63… the Yankees better not send him back to Triple-A after this 6 man rotation fails!  Even his strikeout ratio improved from 5K/9IP in the first half to 7K/9IP in the second half and that includes this past start against the Angels when he had 0 strikeouts! Nova’s clearly pitching much better now than he did at any point last season or the beginning of this year.  He seems to have gotten used to his surroundings and has not had a bad outing since May. 

It’s hard to say whether Nova will be a leading candidate for AL rookie of the year as I tend to be very biased when it comes to the Yankees, but I have watched him pitch all season and develop into a great starting pitcher which is reflected in his 11-4 record.  He has developed secondary pitches like his slider and curve ball to use in conjunction with his sinker and proven himself to be a worthwhile starter in the Yankees organization.

Eduardo Nunez is likely not going to even be considered for the rookie of the year, probably due to his fielding errors alone.  He doesn’t have enough playing time either as he is a utility infielder, but he deserves some credit as he has been doing a great job filling in throughout the infield when needed.  Nunez puts up decent offensive numbers and seems to come up big in clutch situations.  If he can get his fielding straightened out, he will get some more playing time at shortstop and third base as Jeter and Arod will need more rest over the next few season with Father time breathing down their necks.

RED SOX

Josh Reddick had the winning hit this past Sunday in Fenway to take the rubber game from the Yankees.  Reddick is the backup outfielder for the Red Sox and since he is backup, he doesn’t have enough playing time to compete for AL Rookie of the Year, but he is worth a honorable mention as he is hitting .322 with a .368 on base % and .895 OPS.

This is just a list of names that we have either seen over the past week or will see in the next week.  It is NOT an exhaustive list of candidates.  There are numerous guys on the candidate list who I didn’t mention, and in fact I think Michael Pineda will win the AL Rookie of the Year for Seattle, but since the Yanks aren’t playing the Mariner’s soon he was temporarily ignored.  I will come back to this post at some point later this season and update it all with all the leading candidates, but this should give you a good preview of the next week or two and who to keep an eye on.

Pena Down & Laird Up

Ramiro Pena had an emergency appendectomy yesterday, following a strong performance in Toronto Sunday.  It looks like Pena will be out at least 6 weeks for his ailment, which would put his return to approximately the same time period when Arod would return to the Yankees.

The Yankees called up Brandon Laird yesterday and although he was activated for last night's game, he did not arrive in Tampa until the middle innings.  Laird has been a minor league prospect for a few years now and was the best option for a utility infielder as he is on the 40 man roster already.  His numbers are not great in Triple-A this season as he is only batting .266, but since his terrible month of April he is hitting .294.  Laird has been improving as the season progresses and in the month of July he already has 4 home runs. (10 on the season)  He plays third base, first base and the corner outfield spots.  He is probably best known as a third baseman though and that is where he will play on the Yankees behind Eduardo Nunez.  

Girardi has said that Nunez will be the everyday third baseman and Laird will be the back-up.  This gives the Yankees the option of resting Jeter at least one day a week and replacing him with Nunez while Laird gets some time at third base.  Nunez has been doing well offensively lately and has 17 RBI's on the season - 9 of which have tied the game for the Yanks or given them the lead!  He may not be the "clutch" batter that Jeter is, but Nunez is a worthwhile replacement.

Yankees... By The Numbers

So the Yankees have played 84 games this season which is just slightly more than the halfway through the season.  Lets look at some of the team leaders and see where they stand compared to years past

HOME RUN LEADERS

Granderson – 25 Home Runs.  The Grandy Man only had 24 home runs for the entire season in 2010 and he already hit that mark last night with his 2 home runs.  His career high is 30 back in 2009, and I think it’s fair to say that he is on pace to break his own record, but could he possibly he 50 Homers this year?

Texeira – 25 Home Runs.  Tex has been keeping up with Granderson despite a slower start to the season and already has the same amount of homers as last season already.  Tex’s career high home runs was 39 back in 2009, and looks like he could break his own record.  Hopefully he can crush 50 for the year if he keeps this up.

RBI LEADERS

Texeira – Tex leads the Yanks with 65 RBI’s.  Last season Texeira only had 108, but 2010 was not a great year for him.  He should be able to hit more than 108 this year, but I doubt he can break his own record of 144 back in 2005.

Granderson – He is on fire this year, and I don’t think anybody would have predicted that Granderson would have more RBI’s that Arod with 62.  The Grandy Man is on pace to easily beat his career high RBI’s with 74 back in 2007.  He only needs 12 more to do it and we are only halfway!

Rodriguez- Arod isn’t far behind Granderson with 52 RBI’s.  He is on pace to have less than his 125 RBI’s in 2010, and I think it’s fair to say his best RBI years are behind him.  Arod had 156 RBI’s back in 2007 which I find highly unlikely that he will reach again.  On the bright side, Arod has 19 doubles already this season and only hit 29 all of last year.  Seems like he lost some power (surprise, surprise) but is still getting the base hits.

TRIPLES

Granderson – Once again Granderson is topping the charts with 7 triples on the season, which is already as many as he hit for the entire 2010 season.  His career high was 23 back in 2007 and I doubt he will that that many this season, but Granderson has been a pleasant surprise this year.

Gardner- Gardner is having another speedy season and has hit 5 triples so far this year.  He is on pace to break his record of 7 that he set in 2010.

JOSE REYES- I have to mention him here as he already has 15 Triples on the season.  Extremely impressive! 

STOLEN BASES

Gardner- The speedy Gardner leads the team with 22 stolen bases, and that is following a rough start to the season where he was being criticized for not stealing enough and getting caught stealing too often.  Gardner has found his groove, but is slightly off pace from his 47 stolen bases in 2010.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gardner get 50 this year though as his baserunner has drastically improved throughout the season and he is getting more at bats than he was in April/May.

Granderson- Granderson is among the leaders in every offensive category and stolen bases is no different.  He has 15 for the season already and is on pace to break his own record of 26 back in 2007.

Nunez- Although Nunez is not an everyday player, he still has 10 stolen bases.  If this kid continues to work on his defense, he has the potential to be a great player on the Yankees and a decent offensive infielder who poses a threat on the bases.

STRIKEOUTS

Granderson-  With the good comes the bad.  Although Granderson leads the Yanks in most categories, he strikes out quite often.  This season he leads the Yanks with 86 strikeouts.  He is on pace to break his own record of 116 from last season.

Rodriguez- Arod comes in 2^nd place with 65 K’s.  I doubt he will break his record of 139 for 2005 & 2006, but he will come close.

FOR THE PITCHERS

WINS

Sabathia- CC just won his 12^th game of the season last night and leads all pitchers in MLB for Wins.  Last season he won 21 games for the first time with the Yankees and he is on pace to have another 20+ win season, especially if he continues pitching like last night!

SAVES

Rivera- Mo has 21 saves on the season already.  His career high is 53 back in 2004.  It’s difficult to gauge whether he can achieve 53 again since the score of the game factors into how many appearances that he will make, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit 53 again.  Maybe not this season, but he is still the best closer of all time.

STRIKEOUTS

Sabathia- CC’s 11 strikeouts last night and 33 over the past 3 games have brought him to a total of 117 on the season.  He is on pace to beat the 197 K’s in 2010.

Burnett- AJ already has 91 strikeouts on the season and is having a considerably better season than in 2010.  He should be able to get more than 145 K’s that he had in 2010 but I doubt he will reach his career high of 231 back in 2008 with the Jay’s.

The Posada Situation

To say that Jorge Posada is struggling would be an understatement.  Posada is absolutely terrible this year and has not adjusted to the DH role.  We are past the 1/3 mark of the season and at some point, the Yankees need to deal with this problem head on… And I don’t mean Brian Cashman should hold a press conference in the second inning of the Yankees/Red Sox games to discuss Posada.  I hate to say it, but Posada needs to be benched permanently.

Not that it really needs to be said, but Posada is one of the core four & will go down as a Yankees legend.  He has given his heart, soul and his body to this club and now sits in quite a precarious situation.  He has one year remaining on his contract but is only hitting .178 on the season. (This actually may be the highest he has hit all season)  Posada has become a dead spot in the lineup and is an ‘easy-out’ for opposing pitchers.  The Yankees DH spot for 2011 actually has the lowest OBP in the AL at .621.  It doesn’t help, that Posada doesn’t even have one hit against a lefty for the whole year.  So how long will Girardi wait before pulling Posada from the lineup?

I will just say it – Posada is done and should not be in the lineup any longer this season.  Whether the Yankees have to sit him on the bench all season or designate him for assignment, he’s run out of time.  The Yankees have significant issues in their lineup with runners in scoring position, as well as getting hits at the right time and Jorge is one of the biggest culprits.  Posada is hitting .176 with 2 outs with runners in scoring position.  When the game is tied, he’s only hitting .160, and only .182 in the 7^th inning or later with the game tied, or with the Yankees ahead by one run.  (Thank You BaseballReference.com!) No matter what way you look at the stats, he’s not getting the job done, especially in crucial at bats.  

Posada isn’t the only aging Yankee though, as both Arod & Jeter are getting up there in age too; albeit both move much quicker than Posada.  Either way, both Jeter & Arod are getting older and need to play less time throughout the season or it could catch up with them.  The Yankees can’t afford to lose either of their bats in the lineup too often, but must avoid overusing them and burning them out by the end of their careers.  The best way to rest them while still utilizing them would be giving them more DH days throughout the week and random days off during the summer.  The Yankees are in a bind in order to replace both of them as no outside player would want to play backup to Jeter or Arod.  Their only option is to use somebody in the minors or on their roster already.   It's time to add some youth.

Ramiro Pena had his chance to prove himself the last two years and ultimately wasn’t able to put up offensive numbers (although he has a great glove), so this year Eduardo Nunez made the roster as the utility infielder.  The Yankees were fortunate enough to sign Eric Chavez to a deal which was working out great before he went on the DL.  Neither of these two guys are “glamorous” players but Chavez is a 6-time gold glove third basemen on the south side of his career and Nunez has some potential.  Either way, the Yanks don’t need a superstar as backup to another superstar.

Now I know most fans think of Nunez only as the young player who has looked terrible in the field this year, but what we are seeing is some growing pains.  It was only last year that Nunez was ranked #1 best defensive shortstop in the International League by Baseball America.  He was also crowned with the Best Infield Arm in the International League.  Obviously we have seen some issues in the field this year, but neither has been attributed to his arm.  Rather, the problem is the way he approaches the ball.  Nunez doesn’t attack ground balls but has been letting them come to him.  By falling back into the hole and fielding, he places himself an extra 15 yards from first base which causes him to lose time.  In an effort to make up that time, he throws the ball as quickly as he can rather than making a balanced throw.  Ultimately, the ball is thrown erratically either pulling Tex off first base or overthrowing the ball nearly into the stands.  The best part about Nunez’s problem is that it can be fixed with practice.  He only needs to work on his footwork since his arm is strong.  If he is able to approach grounders properly, he won’t put himself in a situation where he forces a quick-throw.  This may take a little time, but the Yankees are lucky enough to have two superstars on the left side of their infield to offset the growing pains of Nunez.  Moreover, they have Chavez if Nunez can’t handle third base, as Nunez is more known as a shortstop.

The fact of the matter is Nunez doesn’t have the flashy numbers that young Yankee prospects are known for, but he shows consistency in his numbers and has some serious speed.  Right now Nunez is batting a mere .224, but it’s still nearly 50 points higher than Posada.  In all fairness, Nunez hasn’t been used terribly much this season yet and isn’t getting the opportunity to swing the bat more than a couple times a week.  If the Yankees want to see progress, they need to give him more at bats.

Last season with the Yankees, Nunez was called up towards the last month of the season and was able to play in 30 games.  During that short period, he hit .280.  This average was similar to his minor league numbers which have stayed somewhat consistent from Single-A to Triple-A.  In 2010 in Triple-A, he hit .289 with a .340 on base percentage.  In 2009 while in Double-A, Nunez hit .322 with a .349 on base percentage and in the prior two years while in High-A Tampa, he hit .271 & .285.  He may not be a .300 hitter, but he is a consistent .270 - .280 batter, which is about 20-30 points higher than the league average.  

On top of that, Nunez is a solid baserunner with significant speed.  Girardi has liked using him late in games as a pinch runner which comes as no surprise since Nunez can steal bases.  Last year, in Triple-A he had 23 stolen bases.  Gardner used to be the base stealer, but he isn’t getting it done this year, so Nunez can take that role over since nobody else is picking up the slack.  Even just one speedy base runner can interrupt even the best pitcher! The Yankees lack this skillset, but Nunez can provide that versatility.  Nunez would become another tool for Girardi to manage with.

The Yankees need to face facts and develop some time of plan for replacing Jeter & Arod over the next few years, and Nunez could be that replacement.  Along with Chavez, both of them can give Arod & Jeter much needed days off in the field while still utilizing their bats in the lineup as DH.  The Yankees don’t need a player who only plays DH, when the majority of their team is getting old.  What they need is their aging players to get days off, and what they can’t afford is Jorge Posada in the lineup.  Its time for Jeter & Arod to get one to two days off a week.  Either one of them can be used as the DH during these off days since Posada would be pulled from the lineup.  Ultimately they won’t lose Jeter & Arods offensive production, but allow them to rest, which in turn could actually help improve their offensive numbers.  Moreover, Nunez will get consistent at bats which should drive his average up accordingly.  Posada has been given every chance possible, but at some point the Yankees need to face facts and cut their losses.

Numbers Can Be Deceiving

Yesterday Freddy Garcia got the start against the Blue Jays and was pulled after 6 innings after allowing 5 earned runs.  On the surface you would think he pitched poorly, but the numbers were a little deceiving.  Garcia didn't have a flawless game by any means, but there were some great signs.

Garcia retired the first nine batters in order and dominated the first time through the Blue Jays lineup.  It was a great start following his previous appearance where he struggled to make good pitches.  In his last start, he got himself in deep counts and struggled.  Yesterday though, he was ahead in most of the counts and had an extremely low pitch count through 6 innings.  His slider was working well and his accuracy was impressive except for an occasional curve ball that would get away from him, and of course the slider in the 6th inning to Cooper who took him yard.

During the second time through the Jay's lineup, Garcia had a little struggle in the 4th inning.  He allowed three hits and three runs.  The positive thing to take away from that was he quickly rebounded.  Garcia retired the next three batters in order with a fly ball and two strikeouts.  Garcia then struck out the next two batters in the fifth inning, essentially striking out four batters in a row after giving up three runs.  Garcia had a total 6 strikeouts in yesterday's game.

After getting the first two outs in the sixth inning, Nunez who was playing left field misplayed a ball that easily would have been caught by Gardner.  If Nunez caught the ball, Garcia would have gotten through 6 innings with only 65 pitches and 3 earned runs.  Instead, Garcia had to face left hander David Cooper and made a bad pitch.  He threw a slider down and inside to Cooper who golfed the ball out for a two-run home run.  Girardi made mention that if this were a regular season game, he would have put a lefty reliever in to face David Cooper.  Bottom line, it was one bad pitch that hurt his line for the day.  Everyone would have been happy with 6 innings with 6 strikeout and only 3 earned runs, especially the way Garcia rebounded after allowing the 3 runs in the 4th inning. Instead Garcia has now pitched 13.2 innings and has a 5.93 ERA.

On a side note, this Blue Jays team is pretty good.  Last year they kicked the Yankees butts.  The Yankees were 8-10 against the Jays last year and it seems like the Jays got younger and faster.  The AL East was a tough division last year (4 Teams played over .500 ball) and it looks like it will be just as tough this season.

Friday's Game in Dunedin

The Yankees are on the road this afternoon in Dunedin to play the Blue Jays.  Burnett is the starting pitcher and the Yankees left the regular infielders back in Tampa.  Dunedin is one of my favorite spring training fields.  It is a minor league ballpark in the middle of a residential neighborhood and everyone who works at the field is from the town, from the elderly people ripping ticket stubs to the old men tossing brauts on the grill.  It's probably the only stadium you can get Labatt's on tap too. (The park has a canadian theme to it)  It really is the exact opposite of Steinbrenner Field which has a very corporate and city atmosphere and a great place to visit if you are in Tampa. 

Here is today's lineup:
 
Brett Gardner LF
Russell Martin C
Curtis Granderson CF
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Eric Chavez 1B
Eduardo Nunez 2B
Ronnie Belliard 3B
Ramiro Pena SS

Chavez is getting the start at First base and Nunez is starting at second.  I think Girardi has made up his mind at this point that both Chavez and Nunez will make the team as backup/utility infielders.  Both are worth keeping an eye on over the next two weeks.  Especially with Nunez trying to beat out Ramiro Pena for that last spot.

Burnett is coming off a great start against the Nationals last weekend where he threw 4 innings and only allowed 2 hits and 0 Runs.  He has improved his mechanics and is striving for consistency as well as a solid changeup.  This will be his final start before Girardi announces who is the #2 starting pitcher this season.  That announcement is set to come this weekend.

Also making an appearance today will be Sergio Mitre who has been sidelined recently due to a minor oblique injury.  He pitched a bullpen on Wednesday and Girardi says he's feeling good again.  Mitre is set to pitch 3 or 4 innings today.

Andrew Brackman who was actually cut from the Major League Roster earlier this week, will be making the trip as well.  It seems as the "Cuts" have only been made, on paper, and have no substantive effect on the spring training roster yet.  Brackman will have another opportunity to face some major league batters which should help him develop as a potential call-up later this season.  Hopefully he will have an opportunity to face Bautista on the Jay's and prove his worth!

The Battle of Nunez & Pena

Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez are both competing for the open utility infielder spot on the team.  Nunez seems to be edging out Pena based on the offensive numbers.  Over the last two years, it doesn't seem like Pena has developed his offensive side and this spring training has not started well.  As of today, he is batting . 158  Fortunately for Pena he went 2 for 3 today against the Braves.  We know that Pena has a great glove and good speed, but needs to step it on the offense.

Nunez seems to be getting more and more attention from the Yankees.  They were reluctant to trade him this offseason and Girardi says he wants to see more of Nunez in spring training before making a decision on the open utility infielder spot.  This should come as a relief to Nunez since Girardi is making the first round of cuts this weekend and he will remain safe.   Nunez is batting .348 in the grapefruit league (albeit it's only been 7 games or so), but he aslo went 2 for 2 today and  hit a  Home Run yesterday against the Astros.  

Pena has had two years to prove his worthiness to the team, but has fallen flat.  It may be time to try Nunez and give him an opportunity to prove himself.

Where does Chavez fit?

This year Eric Chavez, 6 time gold glove third baseman for the Athletics, was singed for a minor league deal and may actually have a shot on this team.  He was one of those low risk – high reward signings, Cashman made this offseason.  With Chavez's experience, Cashman may be highly rewarded with this signing  Chavez has been working with Tino Martinez & Mark Texeira on his fielding skills to be the backup first baseman.  Yesterday he started at first and had a pretty solid defensive game, which included a nice scoop on a bad throw by Laird.  Girardi has been tight lipped about Chavez’s role but it seems he may be carried into the regular season as a backup first baseman and of course third baseman. 

I’m not certain who they would drop from the team but I think it would likely be Ramiro Pena.  His offense struggled last year when he only hit .227 with a  .258 on base percentage, and his winter ball numbers weren’t much better.  In the Mexican league he batted only .233 with a .296 on base percentage.  It will be interesting to see what role he will play on this team in the future as Eduardo Nunez seems to have caught a lot of attention last season.

Nunez played in Triple-A last season and batted .289 with a .340 on base percentage.  He was called up late in the season last year by the Yankees and hit .280 in 30 games.  He has decent speed as well and stole 23 bases in Triple-A.   Nunez may have beaten out Pena for a backup infielder role with these impressive numbers, but I think Chavez is a very worthwhile option and I believe he will start the season with the Yankees. No matter whether it’s Chavez, Pena or Nunez this season, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Watch for Chavez over the next several weeks.