Following yesterday’s game, I went back to dissect what are Hughes’ problems. Let’s start with the positive. Hughes pitched better than he did this past Friday against Oakland when he allowed 7 runs over 4 1/3 Innings. Instead, yesterday he only surrendered two runs over 6 innings. Hughes looked absolutely awful against the A’s and his velocity was down to 90-91 the entire game. Yesterday against the Mariners, Hughes’ velocity was back (at least in the beginning) to 93 mph, and his curveball looked better.
That all being said, it was a very poor outing for Phil Hughes yesterday. His pitching line might not look too bad, but it was an uninspiring performance to say the least. Ultimately Hughes pitched 6 full innings, allowing only 2 runs but allowed 9 hits to the struggling Mariners offense. He finished the day with 101 pitches, 65 of which were strikes and struck out 3 batters all swinging. The numbers don’t look bad at all, but if you watch the game – Hughes got pretty lucky.
The first inning started off strong for Hughes. He had a 1-2-3 inning and was pitching 92 – 93 mph. He relied heavily on the fastball in the first inning and it looked like a promising start for Hughes. That began to change in the second inning though. Franklin Guitteriez was behind in the count 1-2 in the second inning and eventually worked himself a walk after a ten pitch at bat. During this at bat, Hughes constantly shook off Russell Martin and was unable to execute a swing & a miss pitch. This was the first sign of trouble.
Once he was in the third inning, Hughes’ velocity began to drop. He still was throwing some 92 mph fastballs, but the 93 mph balls weren’t there any longer. He got himself into trouble during the third inning when he allowed Ichiro to reach base on a single. That is where I first really noticed some issues for Hughes. He was behind in the count 0-1 to Ichiro and then went with a 2 seamer that was thrown inside to Ichiro, a lefty, but then tailed back over the middle of the plate. Any lefty batter would be happy with that pitch & Ichiro was easily able to get around on the fastball and drive it to left field for a single. This was commonplace yesterday for Hughes as he constantly relied on a fastball that didn’t have good location after the first inning. Throughout the entire outing, Hughes’ fastball was over the plate and at times it seemed like he was throwing balls right down the middle of the plate without any movement. It was like he was throwing batting practice or a bullpen warmup session rather than a game which could determine his future for the rest of the season.
The fourth inning was better for Hughes as he allowed one hit but then worked a double play to end the inning. There was minimal damage in this inning but Hughes velocity continued to decline down to 91 mph. The fifth inning is where Hughes really ran into trouble. The inning began with Cust, Bard & Ichiro all with singles to load the bases. Hughes continued to rely on his fastball with diminished velocity & kept throwing the fastball over the plate making it easy for the batters to get hits. He attempted to induce some swings/misses by using his fastball up around the batters chest but he didn’t have the action to induce a swing. With the bases loaded, Hughes escaped some trouble due to Brett Gardner’s throw from left field to get the third out and only allowed 1 run. Looking back on that inning, Hughes got lucky and any other offense besides the M’s could have really broken the game open at this point. Hughes came back out for the 6th and following a leadoff double, was able to go 1-2-3 with a strikeout to end the day.
Overall it was a lackluster performance by Hughes. He relied too heavily on a fastball that lacked velocity after the 1st inning and his curveball was hit or miss. This was the curveball that we saw him throw against Toronto two weeks ago. The curve has more velocity than his other curveball and has more of a bite to it for that late breaking action. Either it was thrown for a strike early in the count or he threw it for a ball while trying to make an ‘out’ pitch with 2 strikes. His location was iffy the entire day and although he was able to make good pitches early in the count, Hughes was unable to execute later in the count for outs with 2 strikes. I was left with the impression that if Hughes had not been pitching to the Mariners who are hitting only .218 as a team, that he would be in serious trouble. Hughes’ last two games were against offenses that are the two worst in the AL, and he gave up 9 hits to each team. What will happen when he faces a good offense?
Girardi may have given a hint as to what may happen in the future. Girardi said “there could be a competition for the 5th spot in the rotation, but I’m not going to say there will be.” I really don’t know exactly what Girardi meant by this as the entire statement seems to contradict itself, but with Nova likely pitching this Saturday you can bet the Yanks are watching him to determine whether Nova can steal Hughes’ spot back. Nova may not be an ace but he is certainly more effective this season than Hughes. I would trust Nova against a good offense over Hughes since Nova had some great starts and although he doesn’t dominate a lineup, he forces ground balls all day. Hughes on the other hand throws too many pitches with poor location and has a much lower ground ball rate. This all could be meaningless soon enough as the Yanks seem to be going after Kuroda right now, who would steal the spot from both Nova and Hughes. With Sunday being the trade deadline, this will be something to keep an eye on.
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