Sometimes a manager needs to try and catch lightning in a bottle to drive their team to the postseason, but he must balance the need for consistency that the players require. The lighting in a bottle that I am talking about with the Yankees is Brett Gardner’s offensive production over the last few months, and more attractively since the All-Star Break.
Following the All-Star Break, Gardner has played in all 8 games and is hitting .517 with a .576 on base percentage. Unfortunately for Gardner, he hasn’t been used often this season as the leadoff batter, until last night. Some may say that Gardner is streaky but if you break down his numbers by the month, they have gotten better as the season goes on. Streaky or not, the numbers don’t lie and Gardner should be used more often as the leadoff batter, especially against righties.
Gardner is your classic leadoff man. He’s fast and he makes contact with the ball. When Gardner gets on base he becomes a distraction to the pitcher, position players, and the catcher. In turn, this distraction helps Gardner manufacture runs. He is the type of player that can beat out infield grounders, then steal second within a blink of an eye to put himself in scoring position for the hard hitters in the middle of the lineup to drive him home from second base. As much as I love Jeter and think he can still run the bases as smart as any player, he doesn’t manufacture runs the same way Gardner does which is a critical component of the leadoff batter’s responsibility. Look at Ichiro as the perfect example of how leadoff batters create opportunities which manufactures runs.
Gardner’s speed has become such an asset than he now has stolen 16 bases in a row. It’s been over a month since he was caught stealing a base, and over the last six nights Gardner has stolen 7 bases! Since the beginning of last season, Gardner has a 78% success rate! Not only does he pose a threat to opposing teams, there seems to be very little risk involved as Gardner isn’t getting thrown out. In fact, since May 20 he is 24 for 28 in stolen base attempts! As long as he can get on base, he’s a valuable weapon.
Fortunately for the Yankees, Gardner isn’t having trouble reaching base. Right now he is batting .290 with a .370 on base percentage. His average would be even higher had he not started the season with a terrible April as he hit a mere .188 with .273 on base percentage. It took some time for Gardner to get going but as each month of the season passes, his averages increase.
Batting Avg OBP
April: .188 .273
May: .301 .379
June: .317 .404
July: .356 .424
As you can see from above, Gardners numbers are just getting better and better as the summer heats up. Gardner was named the full time left fielder starting last season, and since that time he’s hit .280 with a .376 on base percentage. His numbers don’t show any sign of dying down anytime soon, so it’s time to trap that lightning in the bottle and make him the leadoff batter at least against right handed pitchers. If he is able to manufacture runs, the Yankees need him to try it every day and by allowing him to bat leadoff, the Yankees have the best odds to win the game which is what this all comes down to.
Although I wouldn’t be opposed to having Gardner as the leadoff man for both lefties and righties, Jeter’s numbers against lefties are solid. Jeter is hitting .325 against lefties with a .419 on base percentage. Although Jeter is getting older and a bit slower, he’s still a solid baserunner if only for being a heady player. Unfortunately for Jeter he isn’t making the decision any more difficult for Girardi as his production since the ‘DJ3K day’ (July 9) is weak – Jeter’s only hitting .200 over the last 7 games, compared to Gardners .517 average. Jeter’s production against righties isn’t terribly better as he is only hitting .244 against them with a .290 on base percentage on the season – both these numbers are unacceptable for a leadoff batter. In all fairness to Jeter he does have one stat that is hard to ignore – When leading off a game Jeter hits .379 with a .446 on base percentage!
That all being said, it’s not such an easy thing to bump a guy like Derek Jeter out of the #1 spot. There needs to be some overall consistency within the lineup which players require. That’s why managers don’t just constantly change the lineup from day to day. If you move Jeter from the #1 hole, then where do you put him? If you plug him in as the second batter then Granderson has to move. I believe that when a player like Granderson is doing well – you leave him alone. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! Granderson is having a career year this season, so the last thing I want to do is move him from his regular lineup slot.
So if Gardner is #1 and Granderson is #2 then where do you put Jeter? He’s clearly not a #3, #4 or #5 hitter as he only has 17 extra base hits on the season. Do you bump him to #6? If you bump him to the 6th spot, will he protect Cano or will opposing teams pitch around Cano? If I were an opposing pitcher, I would definitely pitch around Cano to get to Jeter. So by placing Jeter to the #6 spot, you essentially lose Cano’s production since you take away the majority of good pitches thrown to him.
So then we are left with three spots for Jeter - #7, #8 & #9. I doubt you can you plug the captain of the New York Yankees into one of these spots everyday without causing turmoil. My solution would be a compromise - Use Jeter as the leadoff solely against lefties. His numbers are strong enough against lefties that he shouldn’t cause too many issues as the leadoff batter. When facing righties though, bat Jeter lower in the order. I doubt you could get away with batting him 9th, but I have always loved the idea of having back to back leadoff batters in the #9 & #1 spots in a lineup. It adds speed on the bases and with Nunez batting before Jeter and Gardner and Granderson following Jeter it adds a whole new dimension of baserunning to the Yankees offense to help manufacture runs.
Girardi has been making some comments to the media lately about playing with the batting order, so it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks, especially with Arod out of the lineup for another 4 weeks.
No comments:
Post a Comment