Colon’s line last night could have looked like this: 6 innings pitched, 3 runs, 6 hits & 5 strikeouts. Instead, he went back out for the 7th inning and finished the night with 6.1 Innings pitched, 5 runs, 8 hits & 6 strikeouts. If Colon had not gone back out for the 7th there wouldn’t be any scrutiny today as his numbers would indicate a strong outing. Instead he is the story of the day since his inevitable decline has begun.
I got to be honest here and say that I doubted that Colon was going to make it out of spring training, then I doubted he would make it to the All Star Break but somewhere around the midpoint of the season I have been sold on Colon. I don’t think he’s in any danger of losing steam even though he has already pitched more innings this year than he has in the past 3. His velocity is still high and he looks generally in control on the mound.
His numbers on the other hand seem to reflect that Colon is not as dominant as he was in the first half. Since coming back from the DL with his hamstring injury, he is 3-5 with a 4.61 ERA. Compare that to his ERA in the first half at 3.20 and there is a noticeable decline. I don’t necessarily attribute it to him running out of steam though. Colon hasn’t actually shown anything to indicate he lost his stamina. Instead, it seems that the league may have caught up with him a bit.
Colon relies upon four pitches: His 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, slider and the occasional changeup. What this really means is that he is mainly a fastball pitcher and fangraphs.com has him using a fastball at 82.5%. Colon mixes the fastball with a slider used about 12% of the time and the changeup at 4% of the time. What this means to me as a batter is: Wait for the fastball! He’s going to throw it often and hopefully you can get a good swing on the pitch. Don’t waste your time looking for the slider or change as he doesn’t use them often. Last night was even more noticeable as Colon wasn’t using his 2 seamer at all. It was the 4 seamer all night with the occasional slider and change mixed in. Although his fastball has movement to it, the batter knows it’s coming so they can prepare accordingly. Basically the league has caught up with Colon.
Last night wasn’t Colon’s best night by any means but it still wasn’t as bad as many would make you think. Like I had said, if he finished after 6 innings, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Colon actually finished the 6th inning with a strikeout on his fastball in the mid 90’s. He even came back out for the 7th inning and started off with another strikeout. Ultimately he allowed a single and a double during the 7th before he was pulled for Boone Logan. Logan came in to face Sizemore who hit the ball up the first base line. It wasn’t a quality hit from Sizemore as he hit it with the very end of the bat, but it got the job done and Colon finished the night with 5 earned runs.
Colon may not be the same pitcher he was back in May and June, but he is still an efficient starting pitcher who keeps the Yankees in the game. Before the Yankees return to the 5 man rotation, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for Colon to sit out a game or two following this weekends series in Baltimore. Unfortunately that means AJ will get another start or two. If Colon can get a little rest now and retool his pitches slightly by working on his control again, it will give him an edge that should last into the postseason.
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